OUR FORECAST

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Thank you to the 700 people who attended both events. We appreciate your support!

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:
• In 2018 Prices went up:
o 8% in Fort Collins
o 8% in Loveland
o 8.5% in Greeley
o 8% in Metro Denver

 Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
o Up 25% in Northern Colorado
o Up 45% in Metro Denver

• There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.

• There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
o New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
o Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
o The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
o The home ownership rate is back to the long-term average.

• Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
o 6% in Fort Collins
o 6% in Loveland
o 7% in Greeley
o 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands!

Posted on January 21, 2019 at 7:16 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

The Cost of Waiting

It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off. We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.
However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.

As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait. They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’

The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.

1. Interest rates will continue to rise
2. Prices will continue to rise

Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.

Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years. Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.

So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today. If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.

And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher. That’s an 11% increase!

In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”

Posted on September 7, 2018 at 9:05 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Top 5

Greeley is the 5th-ranked city in the whole country for one year appreciation. This is according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s most recent quarterly report. They track close to 300 markets all over the U.S.

For the first time in a long time, the Fort Collins/Loveland market did not make the top 20 list- they came in ranked 76th.

Greeley’s appreciation over the last year was 12.63% and Fort Collins/Loveland’s was 7.98%.

Who was first? Boise, Idaho with 15.25%.

Who was last? Peoria, Illinois whose prices fell 1.26%.

What about other Colorado cities?

  • Colorado Springs – 14th @ 11.65%
  • Grand Junction – 16th @ 11.47%
  • Denver – 28th @ 10.18%
  • Boulder – 68th @ 8.25%

Overall, prices in the U.S. increased by an average of 6.9%. A couple of interesting side notes- a minimum of 11% was required to make the top-20, and 18 of the top 20 are in the Western U.S.

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 25, 2018 at 6:56 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Relief On The Way!

There is good news and bad news. 

The good news is I-25 traffic relief is on the way. The bad news is we will have to live through three summers of construction before it’s done. 

Did you know the 26 miles between Highway 14 in Fort Collins and Highway 66 in Longmont Interstate 25 serves more than 45,000 cars per day? Wow!

Part of that stretch of interstate will get a third lane starting this summer. Construction is set to begin next month that will add a third lane between Highway 14 and Highway 402.

The project is happening 14 years ahead of schedule thanks to additional funding from several sources including the Cities of Fort Collins and Loveland. The first step we will notice is construction on the I 25/Highway 34 intersection.

This is great news for our region that will bring much needed relief. We will all just need to be a little patient while the work is being done.

Posted on May 18, 2018 at 5:52 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , ,

66% Off

This just in…

For the month of April, the average price of a home in the city of Boulder was $1,247,000. This is according to the latest from our IRES MLS system. 

If you want to own a home about an hour down the road in another really nice college town and get a 66% discount, you may want to check out Fort Collins 🙂

Yes, despite the recent uptick in prices here locally, we are still a bargain compared to Boulder. Here are median single-family prices for our markets and their relative price to Boulder:

  • Fort Collins = $414,237 (66.8% off)
  • Loveland = $360,150 (71.1% off)
  • Greeley = $290,000 (76.7% off)
  • Windsor = $306,450 (75.4% off)

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 11, 2018 at 5:34 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April Showers

The April results are in for Larimer and Weld County…

Larimer County had 547 residential sales for the month, 11% fewer than a year ago. Weld County was up 13% compared to last year with 493 sales.

Why is Larimer down and Weld up? It’s mostly driven by affordability – there tend to be more homes to choose from under $350,000 in Weld County.

How about prices? Average prices went up 10% in Larimer County and 9% in Weld County compared to April 2017.

Larimer County’s average price is $419,918 and Weld’s is $359,402.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

Posted on May 7, 2018 at 8:20 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Under $300,000

If a real estate buyer walks into one of our offices in Northern Colorado and tells us they are looking for a single-family home under $300,000, unfortunately there will not be many properties to choose from. Depending on where they are looking the choices may be very limited.

Here is a list of the number of single-family homes currently for sale (excluding manufactured homes) in Northern Colorado:

  • Fort Collins = 0
  • Loveland = 7
  • Windsor = 0
  • Wellington = 0
  • Timnath = 0
  • Greeley = 27
  • Evans = 8
  • Milliken = 2

If our active market has you thinking about investing in real estate in Northern Colorado. Check this out…

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email me at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on April 27, 2018 at 5:11 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Foreclosed

Remember when the hot topics in real estate were short sales and foreclosures? Not today!

As an additional indicator of the health of our market, foreclosure activity is significantly lower than it was 7 to 8 years ago.

Today in Colorado only 1 in 3920 homes is in foreclosure. This is much lower than the current national number of 1 in every 2043 homes.

How about Northern Colorado? Both Larimer and Weld Counties are performing better than the National Average.

In Larimer County the number is 1 in 6695 and Weld County is 1 in 2849.

Posted on February 23, 2018 at 4:02 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
  • Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
  • As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
  • There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on February 1, 2018 at 8:49 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Gardner Report | Tagged , , , , ,

Bubbly?

Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.

There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.

Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…

One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory. Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes. The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.

Are we in a housing bubble?

Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.
According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.

That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.

It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.

So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.

In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to me to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information. Just email me at rdupont@windermere.com

Posted on January 26, 2018 at 6:38 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Blog, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,