You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
Most people know that the Spring and Summer are the most active months for real estate and that activity trails off into the Fall and Winter.
Here are the specific numbers behind this…
The number of homes sold along the Front Range in November tends to be between 15% and 29% lower than September.
That means the best window of time for current sellers to obtain a contract from a buyer and close by the end of the year will occur over the next 45 days.
For sellers who have homes on the market today, it is time to ensure that:
Clients often have short-term questions like…
How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?
We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.
When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.
For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:
So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.
To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.
Homes, aren’t priced by the pound of course. But they are priced by the foot.
An interesting way to examine an entire real estate market or a specific home is to look at the price per square foot.
For example, right now our company has a 2,470 square foot home right on the water in Seattle listed at $4,995,000. That comes to $2,022 per square foot.
Meanwhile, we also have a 2,549 square foot home for sale in Timnath priced at $445,000 which is $175 per square foot.
Price per foot is driven by many factors the most important ones being location and finishes.
Here is the average price per foot for our main markets across Northern Colorado:
If you would like to know what your home is worth, per square foot, contact me and I will get that information into your hands right away.
The perception is that Spring is the busy time for home sales and that a Seller would be better served waiting to sell their home.
The reality is the numbers show that your odds of selling your home in the fall (and even the Winter) are just as good as the Spring. The reason is that the competition from other sellers is much lower in the Fall and Winter.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
We did an analysis of the number of homes that sold last year in each month versus the homes for sale that month and then looked at the ratio. For example, if 500 homes were for sale and 250 of them sold, the ratio would be 50%.
Here are the ratios for certain months in our 3 major Northern Colorado markets:
So the numbers tell us that there is no advantage of waiting until the Spring.
Also, all of our clients who are listing their home now see the advantage of dealing with the “known” versus the “unknown” when it comes to interest rates, demand levels and other market factors.
If you would like to see the odds of selling in your particular neighborhood and your particular price range, contact me today.
The new rankings are out from the Federal Housing Finance Authority which ranks all 50 states plus close to 300 individual metropolitan markets for home price appreciation.
We trust this source because they track actual sales of individual homes versus simply looking at average prices. Their home price index is one of the key pieces of research that we follow closely.
There are a few significant items in their latest report (which is hot off the press).
In case you are curious, the hottest market in the country is Mount Vernon, Washington with 15.1% yearly appreciation. Atlantic City is ranked last with a 0.8% price decrease.
It’s clearly “good to be us” as we are one of the highest-performing markets over the long-haul.
Check out the FHFA recap video here:
Here is the data straight from FHFA’s report:
U.S. house prices rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 6.6 percent from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.1 percent from May.
The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA has produced a video of highlights for this quarter.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere's Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
Posted by Windermere Real Estate on Friday, August 18, 2017
Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!
You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?
Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?
Here’s the deal…
The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.
What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.
What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.
In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.
For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June. Whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.
A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.
We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.
The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.
It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org
Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.
What if we told you that market was right in our back yard?
The market is Wellington and what is happening there is extraordinary.
Because price increases in Fort Collins have eliminated virtually all options for the sub $300,000 buyer, Wellington has become a very popular place to buy a home.
In June of 2012, the average price there was $185,000. Today it is $300,500!
In 2012 there were 222 residential sales in Wellington. This year is on pace to ecliplse 500.
Yes, Wellington has exploded and we don’t see it slowing down any time soon!
The Town of Wellington was an oil, coal and agricultural hub throughout the 1800s and became a stopping location for wagon trains, travelers, and military movement between Cheyenne, Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado. The town was founded in 1902, incorporated in 1905 and named after C.L. Wellington, an employee of the Colorado and Southern Railroad.
Around the same time the population began to grow in Wellington, woolly mammoth remains were discovered by a construction crew while digging foundations for new homes. The remains were carefully excavated by a University of Colorado team while residents watched with excitement. Unfortunately, after being taken back to the University for further examination, the tusks were dropped and shattered on a floor. In recognition and remembrance of this event, the subdivision where they were found named a street Mammoth Circle.
Wellington maintained a population around 500 throughout the 20th century and grew to about 1,000 until the early 2000s. Today, Wellington is home to a population of nearly 8,300 residents.
Fun Facts & Image Source: www.townofwellington.com