Rate Bounce

Rates hit near-historic lows this week and are now at 3.49% for a 30-year mortgage.

There have only been two other times in history when rates have been this low- April 2013 and October 2016.

It’s interesting to see what happened soon after bottoming out these last two times.

In April of 2013 rates hit 3.41%. By August 2013 they had jumped to 4.40%.

Rates bottomed again in October 2016 at 3.42%. Just two months later in December 2016 they were 4.32%.

Each time the increase was nearly 1% within just a few months.

So, if history proves itself as a guide, we can’t expect these rates to last for long.

Posted on September 13, 2019 at 3:18 pm
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How Much?

So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?

As it turns out, a lot!

Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties

The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!

Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.

That’s a lot of real estate!

 

Posted on August 16, 2019 at 4:58 pm
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On Sale

With interest rates so low, one could argue that money is essentially on sale.

It’s actually half off.

30-year mortgage rates hit 3.75% which is exactly half of their long term average.

Rates have averaged 7.5% over the last 40 years so today buyers are getting half of that rate.

The “sale” on mortgage rates creates a significant savings in monthly payment because of the 1%/10% rule.

For every 1% change in interest rate, the monthly payment will change roughly 10%.

So when rates go up to 4.75%, a buyer’s payment will be 10% higher.

For example, the principal and interest payment on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment at today’s rates is $1,482.

If rates were 1% higher, the payments jump up to $1,669.

 

Posted on August 9, 2019 at 5:37 pm
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What We Notice

  • Inventory is up, price reductions are up, the length of time to sell a home is up
  • Seller concessions are more prevalent
  • Sellers are more willing to accept contingent offers (especially in higher price ranges)
  • If a home doesn’t sell within a week, it often becomes stigmatized by the market and potential buyers assume there must be something wrong with it
  • Homes that likely would have sold within hours a year ago, are now sitting on the market
  • Condition is super-important as buyers become even more picky
  • Pricing a property correctly on day one is paramount
  • Sellers who over-price their property are finding themselves chasing the market

 

Posted on August 5, 2019 at 5:05 pm
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Home-ownership Rate

An interesting stat which can give some insight to the national market is the Home-ownership Rate.

It simply looks at the percentage of Americans who own their home instead of rent.

The most recent report from the Census Bureau shows the rate at 64.2%.

Most importantly, this number is showing stability after many years of change.

After many years of hovering around 64%, the Home-ownership Rate started increasing in 1996 and reached as high as 69.5% in 2005.

2008 started several years of declining back to the pre-1996 levels of 64%.

So today it’s back to what seems to be “normal” based the long-term average.

 

Posted on July 27, 2019 at 12:18 am
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Compound Effect

The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.

Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.

In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here. Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.

This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.

While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.

It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.

Posted on July 19, 2019 at 4:53 pm
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Sign Surprise

Given how active our market is today and has been over the last few years, many people assume that virtually every home with a “For Sale” sign in the front yard is already under contract.

 

They are surprised to learn that, in most cases, the “For Sale” sign does indeed represent a home that is actively for sale.

 

For example, today in Fort Collins there are 655 single-family homes on the market. 290 of these are under contract and will be closing soon. 365 of these are still active. So, 56% of the signs in Fort Collins are in front of homes that are still available.

 


Here are the specific numbers for each of our Northern Colorado markets:
• Fort Collins = 56%
• Loveland = 57%
• Windsor = 58%
• Greeley = 41%

 

Posted on July 13, 2019 at 7:07 pm
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New Home News!

Nationally, sales of new homes are stronger than they have been in a long time. March was the best month since 2007 and April was the third-best month in that same time period.

This research comes from the National Association of Home Builders who show that we are on pace to sell 673,000 new homes this year across the Country.  5 years ago there were roughly 450,000 sales of new homes.

For the first four months of 2019, new home sales are 6.7% ahead of the sales pace of the initial four months of 2018.

What is interesting is that those gains have distinct regional clustering. Year-to-date sales are up 10.3% in the South, 6.7% in the West (concentrated in the Mountain states), and 1.3% in the Midwest, while recording a 17.6% decline in the Northeast.

 

Posted on May 31, 2019 at 6:41 pm
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Down Again

Mortgage rates dropped again for the fourth week in a row.

 

The average 30-year rate is now 4.06% which is the lowest it has been all year.

Rates today are actually the lowest they have been since early 2018.

The main factor driving rates down is the trade war with China.

Investors are shifting money from stocks into bonds which causes the yield on the 10-year Treasury to drop.

Mortgage rates are closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury.

At the beginning of the year, most experts believed that 2019 would have a trend of increasing mortgage rates eventually reaching 5.5%.

Instead, the opposite has happened which is good news for real estate.

Posted on May 24, 2019 at 8:47 pm
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Inventory vs. Sales

A stat we find interesting is the relationship between the inventory for sale versus what is actually selling.

Specifically what we look at are price ranges.

We are curious to know if the inventory that is for sale lines up with what the buyers want.

Here’s what we notice…

In Larimer County, 23% of all the single family homes for sale are priced under $400,000. No surprise, this is a popular price range among buyers and it represents 45% of all sales.

So, the ratio is 23% of the inventory versus 45% of the sales.

In Weld County, the difference is more pronounced.

Homes under $400,000 represent 44% of the inventory and 69% of the sales.

Because the percentage of sales is higher than the percentage of inventory, properties under $400,000 will sell much quicker and are more likely to have multiple offers.

To see the latest on the market, be sure to check out a copy of the new Gardner Report, our Chief Economist’s quarterly look at Front Range real estate.

Posted on May 10, 2019 at 8:12 pm
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