You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off. We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.
However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.
As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait. They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’
The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.
1. Interest rates will continue to rise
2. Prices will continue to rise
Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.
Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years. Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.
So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today. If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.
And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher. That’s an 11% increase!
In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”
For the month of April, the average price of a home in the city of Boulder was $1,247,000. This is according to the latest from our IRES MLS system.
If you want to own a home about an hour down the road in another really nice college town and get a 66% discount, you may want to check out Fort Collins 🙂
Yes, despite the recent uptick in prices here locally, we are still a bargain compared to Boulder. Here are median single-family prices for our markets and their relative price to Boulder:
Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at email@example.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.
We project that in the first quarter of 2018, the average price for a single family home in Greeley will surpass $300,000.
Just a year ago it was $262,828.
Guess when Greeley broke the $200,000 barrier? It was only about 3 years ago in June 2014.
So what ‘s going on?
Double-digit price appreciation is being fueled by a healthy Northern Colorado economy, low interest rates and local affordability. Greeley prices can look really attractive compared to Fort Collins.
We don’t see anything on the horizon that will significantly change the trajectory of the Greeley market. It is a fundamentally a very strong place to own real estate.
The perception is that Spring is the busy time for home sales and that a Seller would be better served waiting to sell their home.
The reality is the numbers show that your odds of selling your home in the fall (and even the Winter) are just as good as the Spring. The reason is that the competition from other sellers is much lower in the Fall and Winter.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
We did an analysis of the number of homes that sold last year in each month versus the homes for sale that month and then looked at the ratio. For example, if 500 homes were for sale and 250 of them sold, the ratio would be 50%.
Here are the ratios for certain months in our 3 major Northern Colorado markets:
So the numbers tell us that there is no advantage of waiting until the Spring.
Also, all of our clients who are listing their home now see the advantage of dealing with the “known” versus the “unknown” when it comes to interest rates, demand levels and other market factors.
If you would like to see the odds of selling in your particular neighborhood and your particular price range, contact me today.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere's Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
Posted by Windermere Real Estate on Friday, August 18, 2017
Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!
You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?
Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?
Here’s the deal…
The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.
What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.
What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.
In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.
For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June. Whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.
A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.
We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.
The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.
It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org
Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.
What if we told you that market was right in our back yard?
The market is Wellington and what is happening there is extraordinary.
Because price increases in Fort Collins have eliminated virtually all options for the sub $300,000 buyer, Wellington has become a very popular place to buy a home.
In June of 2012, the average price there was $185,000. Today it is $300,500!
In 2012 there were 222 residential sales in Wellington. This year is on pace to ecliplse 500.
Yes, Wellington has exploded and we don’t see it slowing down any time soon!
The Town of Wellington was an oil, coal and agricultural hub throughout the 1800s and became a stopping location for wagon trains, travelers, and military movement between Cheyenne, Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado. The town was founded in 1902, incorporated in 1905 and named after C.L. Wellington, an employee of the Colorado and Southern Railroad.
Around the same time the population began to grow in Wellington, woolly mammoth remains were discovered by a construction crew while digging foundations for new homes. The remains were carefully excavated by a University of Colorado team while residents watched with excitement. Unfortunately, after being taken back to the University for further examination, the tusks were dropped and shattered on a floor. In recognition and remembrance of this event, the subdivision where they were found named a street Mammoth Circle.
Wellington maintained a population around 500 throughout the 20th century and grew to about 1,000 until the early 2000s. Today, Wellington is home to a population of nearly 8,300 residents.
Fun Facts & Image Source: www.townofwellington.com
Did you know that during the 30 years between 1965 and 1995 the homeownership rate stayed between 63% and 66%?
Then everything changed as government policies were put in place to encourage a higher percentage of homeowners. During the housing bubble the rate approached 70%.
As the bubble burst, this percentage fell rapidly and eventually bottomed out at 62.9%. Today it sits at 63.7% which is right inside the range of where it was between 1965 and 1995. As we see it, it’s right where it needs to be.
The fact that the homeownership rate sits at “normal” levels is one of three reasons we don’t see a national housing bubble today.
The President of Windermere Colorado, Eric Thompson, created a short video for you which shows you all three reasons. To watch the video, CLICK HERE.