BlogFort Collins Real EstateGardner Report February 1, 2018

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
  • Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
  • As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
  • There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun FactsNorthern Colorado Real Estate January 26, 2018

Bubbly?

Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.

There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.

Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…

One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory. Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes. The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.

Are we in a housing bubble?

Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.
According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.

That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.

It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.

So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.

In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to me to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information. Just email me at rdupont@windermere.com

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun FactsNorthern Colorado Real Estate January 19, 2018

Our Forecast

Last night was our annual Market Forecast event. Thank you to the 400 clients and friends who joined us at the Marriott.

Here are our predictions for where prices are going in 2018:soap-bubble-1959327_1920.jpg

  • Fort Collins 8%
  • Loveland 7%
  • Greeley 9%

Last year’s average price increases looked like this:

  • Fort Collins 7%
  • Loveland 8%
  • Greeley 11%

Low inventory will persist in many parts of the market during 2018. But, like we mentioned last night, there are many parts of the market where the market is in balance or even over-supplied with homes. All markets are local!

Our Cheif Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared several of his insights including his prediction for interest rates one year from now which is 4.4% (about 0.5% higher than today).

For buyers thinking about waiting until the market cools off, there is a tangible cost to that wait. If prices and interest rates go up as we predict, a one-year wait would equal over $200 per month for a $400,000 home.

In case you missed the event, you can read more about it here in the Loveland Reporter-Herald. They did a great recap of our presentation. CLICK HERE

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun FactsNorthern Colorado Real Estate January 12, 2018

What’s Up??

First things first, this is your last call to register for our Annual Forecast. If you want clarity on what is happening in the market, this is the event to attend. We will be live at 5:30 Thursday the 18th at the Marriott. RSVP to www.windermereforecast.com

Now, what’s going up? According to our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner, interest rates. His prediction for 2018 is that rates will rise roughly 0.5% up to 4.4%.

That means a buyer’s purchasing power will go down by 5%. Even if prices didn’t increase at all, a buyer’s monthly payment would go up 5% because of a measly 1/2% increase in interest rate.

By Matthew’s own admission, rates have baffled forecasters for the last few years. Unusual forces have kept them artificially low for a sustained period of time. But even a small rate increase like Matthew predicts will have a big effect on potential buyers.

To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun FactsNorthern Colorado Real Estate December 8, 2017

Get Real

A story ran this week which highlighted the number of people who have moved out of Colorado.

Let’s get real, there are still a large number of people moving to Colorado.

In fact, 223,000 moved to Colorado from another state last year according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The net migration into our state (after subtracting out people who left) was 30,859 people.

In Northern Colorado the net migration looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 7,001 people
  • Weld County = 7,117 people

So what does that mean for housing? Knowing that, on average, 2.5 people live in each household, the number of new housing units required for these new residents looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 2,800 new housing units
  • Weld County = 2,847 new housing units
BlogFun FactsGardner Report November 5, 2017

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.8%. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, annual employment growth was seen in all areas other than Grand Junction (where employment was stable) with substantial growth seen in Fort Collins (4.6%) and Greeley (3.5%).

In August, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.2%, down from 3.1% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were again seen in Fort Collins at just 1.8%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, at a very respectable 3.0%. It is still reasonable to assume that all the markets contained within this report will see above-average wage growth given the very tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 17,140 home sales during the third quarter of 2017, which was a drop of 3.3% from the same period in 2016.
  • Sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 4% more than the third quarter of 2016. There were marginal increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales slowed due to very low levels of available inventory. Listing activity continues to trend at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the third quarter 5.5% below the level seen a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth has stalled due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With substantial competition for the few available homes, prices continue to rise. Average prices were up 7.5% year-over-year to a regional average of $428,602.
  • Slower appreciation in home values was again seen in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 12%.
  • Due to an ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, home prices will continue to appreciate at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the third quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out as it took an average of just two weeks to sell a home there.
  • During the third quarter, it took an average of 20 days to sell a home. This is up by 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Demand remains strong, and well-positioned, well-priced homes continue to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

In the third quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the second quarter. Homes are still scarce; however, there is a small slowdown in price growth and a decline in both closed and pending sales. This may suggest the market is either getting weary of all the competition or that would-be buyers are possibly putting off buying until they see more choices in the number of homes for sale.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 

If you are in the market to buy or sell, let me know!  I am happy to help!

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun Facts October 27, 2017

Short vs Long

There are short-term questions about real estate and there are long term questions about real estate.

Clients often have short-term questions like…

How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?

We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.

When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.

For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:

  • Larimer County = 5.36%
  • Weld County = 4.25%
  • Metro Denver = 5.56%

So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun Facts October 22, 2017

Inventory is UP!

For the past few years the hot topic in Northern Colorado real estate is inventory, or more specifically, lack of inventory.

Based on our current research, it looks like this trend is reversing.

Let’s look at the increase in inventory in our major markets versus a year ago…

  • Fort Collins up 28%
  • Loveland up 4%
  • Windsor up 37%
  • Greeley up 5%

This increase in is very good news for prospective buyers as now there are more homes to choose from.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun Facts September 15, 2017

Greeley’s Major Milestone

The Greeley market is about to hit a major milestone.

We project that in the first quarter of 2018, the average price for a single family home in Greeley will surpass $300,000.

Today the average price sits at $289,870.

Just a year ago it was $262,828.

Guess when Greeley broke the $200,000 barrier? It was only about 3 years ago in June 2014.

So what ‘s going on?

Double-digit price appreciation is being fueled by a healthy Northern Colorado economy, low interest rates and local affordability. Greeley prices can look really attractive compared to Fort Collins.

We don’t see anything on the horizon that will significantly change the trajectory of the Greeley market. It is a fundamentally a very strong place to own real estate.

For a detailed look at what ‘s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Gardner Report“, written by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

BlogFort Collins Real EstateFort Collins RealtorFun Facts September 1, 2017

Colorado Home Price Appreciation

New Rankings

The new rankings are out from the Federal Housing Finance Authority which ranks all 50 states plus close to 300 individual metropolitan markets for home price appreciation.

We trust this source because they track actual sales of individual homes versus simply looking at average prices. Their home price index is one of the key pieces of research that we follow closely.

There are a few significant items in their latest report (which is hot off the press).

  • Colorado is ranked 2nd for one-year appreciation, 5th for five-year appreciation and 1st for twenty five-year appreciation. Prices across Colorado have increased 324% since the end of 1991.
  • Fort Collins/Loveland is ranked 10th out of all the metro areas for one-year appreciation with a 12.1% increase.
  • Greeley is in at 21st with 10.73% appreciation

In case you are curious, the hottest market in the country is Mount Vernon, Washington with 15.1% yearly appreciation. Atlantic City is ranked last with a 0.8% price decrease.

It’s clearly “good to be us” as we are one of the highest-performing markets over the long-haul.

Check out the FHFA recap video here:

Here is the data straight from FHFA’s report:

U.S. house prices rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).   House prices rose 6.6 percent from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017.  FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.1 percent from May.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  FHFA has produced a video of highlights for this quarter.

Significant Findings

  • Home prices rose in 48 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017.  The top five states in annual appreciation were:  1) Washington 12.4 percent; 2) Colorado 10.4 percent; 3) Idaho 10.3 percent; 4) Florida 9.4 percent; and 5) Utah 9.2 percent.
  • Among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S., annual price increases were greatest in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD), where prices increased by 15.7 percent.  Prices were weakest in New Haven-Milford, CT, where they rose by 0.1 percent.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Pacific division experienced the strongest increase in the second quarter, posting a 2.6 percent quarterly increase and a 8.9 percent increase since the second quarter of last year.  House price appreciation was weakest in the Middle Atlantic division, where prices rose 0.8 percent from the last quarter.

Source: FHFA