This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.
Thank you to the 700 people who attended both events. We appreciate your support!
In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:
• In 2018 Prices went up:
o 8% in Fort Collins
o 8% in Loveland
o 8.5% in Greeley
o 8% in Metro Denver
• Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
o Up 25% in Northern Colorado
o Up 45% in Metro Denver
• There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
• There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
o New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
o Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
o The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
o The home ownership rate is back to the long-term average.
• Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
o 6% in Fort Collins
o 6% in Loveland
o 7% in Greeley
o 6% in Metro Denver
If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me. I would be happy to put it in your hands!
One of the most common questions we hear from clients is “Where do you think interest rates are going?”
Virtually all of the experts we follow put rates above 5% going into next year and some see rates approaching 5.5% by the middle of 2019. What’s certain is that there are economic forces at work that are pushing rates higher.
So, how about a little history lesson? How do today’s 30- year mortgage rates compare to this same date in history going all the way back to 1990?
• Today = 4.85%
• 2017 = 3.94%
• 2015 = 3.82%
• 2010 = 4.27%
• 2005 = 5.98%
• 2000 = 7.84%
• 1995 = 7.75%
• 1990 = 10.22%
While today’s rates feel high only because they are higher than 2017, they are quite a bit lower than at many times in history.
Last night was our annual Market Forecast event. Thank you to the 400 clients and friends who joined us at the Marriott.
- Fort Collins 8%
- Loveland 7%
- Greeley 9%
Last year’s average price increases looked like this:
- Fort Collins 7%
- Loveland 8%
- Greeley 11%
Low inventory will persist in many parts of the market during 2018. But, like we mentioned last night, there are many parts of the market where the market is in balance or even over-supplied with homes. All markets are local!
Our Cheif Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared several of his insights including his prediction for interest rates one year from now which is 4.4% (about 0.5% higher than today).
For buyers thinking about waiting until the market cools off, there is a tangible cost to that wait. If prices and interest rates go up as we predict, a one-year wait would equal over $200 per month for a $400,000 home.
First things first, this is your last call to register for our Annual Forecast. If you want clarity on what is happening in the market, this is the event to attend. We will be live at 5:30 Thursday the 18th at the Marriott. RSVP to www.windermereforecast.com
Now, what’s going up? According to our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner, interest rates. His prediction for 2018 is that rates will rise roughly 0.5% up to 4.4%.
That means a buyer’s purchasing power will go down by 5%. Even if prices didn’t increase at all, a buyer’s monthly payment would go up 5% because of a measly 1/2% increase in interest rate.
By Matthew’s own admission, rates have baffled forecasters for the last few years. Unusual forces have kept them artificially low for a sustained period of time. But even a small rate increase like Matthew predicts will have a big effect on potential buyers.
To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com
Clients often have short-term questions like…
How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?
We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.
When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.
For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:
- Larimer County = 5.36%
- Weld County = 4.25%
- Metro Denver = 5.56%
So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.
To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.
Today we will take a fun trip down memory lane.
Did you know that it was the fall of 1981 when mortgage interest rates hit their all time peak? Yes it was this time 36 years ago when 30-year mortgage rates hit 18.39%
It’s important to note that in those days, not many home buyers were opting for a 30-fixed loan because rates were so high. There were a lot of people looking at adjustable rate products as a way to reduce the monthly payment.
Just for fun, let’s look at what a monthly payment would look like if those same rates from 1981 existed today.
If rates were 18.39% today, a $350,000 home with a 20% down payment would have a monthly principal and interest payment of…
Thank goodness rates aren’t that high today. They are actually about 15% lower!
Today’s 30-year rate sits at 3.83% (which by the way is roughly half of the long term average).
A monthly principal and interest payment on a $350,000 home with 20% down is…
$1,309. Three thousand dollars lower than it would be using 1981 ‘s rates.
For a detailed look at what’s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Scoop.”
The Greeley market is about to hit a major milestone.
We project that in the first quarter of 2018, the average price for a single family home in Greeley will surpass $300,000.
Just a year ago it was $262,828.
Guess when Greeley broke the $200,000 barrier? It was only about 3 years ago in June 2014.
So what ‘s going on?
Double-digit price appreciation is being fueled by a healthy Northern Colorado economy, low interest rates and local affordability. Greeley prices can look really attractive compared to Fort Collins.
We don’t see anything on the horizon that will significantly change the trajectory of the Greeley market. It is a fundamentally a very strong place to own real estate.
The perception is that Spring is the busy time for home sales and that a Seller would be better served waiting to sell their home.
The reality is the numbers show that your odds of selling your home in the fall (and even the Winter) are just as good as the Spring. The reason is that the competition from other sellers is much lower in the Fall and Winter.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
We did an analysis of the number of homes that sold last year in each month versus the homes for sale that month and then looked at the ratio. For example, if 500 homes were for sale and 250 of them sold, the ratio would be 50%.
Here are the ratios for certain months in our 3 major Northern Colorado markets:
- March = 38%
- October = 38%
- December = 55%
- March = 39%
- October = 43%
- December = 46%
- March = 48%
- October = 49%
- December = 82%
So the numbers tell us that there is no advantage of waiting until the Spring.
Also, all of our clients who are listing their home now see the advantage of dealing with the “known” versus the “unknown” when it comes to interest rates, demand levels and other market factors.
If you would like to see the odds of selling in your particular neighborhood and your particular price range, contact me today.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere's Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
Posted by Windermere Real Estate on Friday, August 18, 2017
Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!