BlogFun Facts February 3, 2024

Forecast Takeaways

Here are some of the big takeaways from our annual Market Forecast with Economist Matthew Gardner:

  • Interest rates will continue to trend down during the year and reach 6.08% by the end of 2024.
  • Home prices will have another year of modest gains increasing 2.0% to 2.5% in Northern Colorado
  • 53% of homeowners in Larimer County and 38% of homeowners in Weld County are “Equity Rich” meaning that they have at least 50% equity in their homes.
  • Inventory levels will increase in 2024 but will remain below normal which protects prices from any sort of major decline

To receive a copy of the full slide deck from the Forecast, feel free to reach out to us!

BlogFun Facts January 12, 2024

Out of the Gates

How is the year starting? All of us in the real estate industry are especially curious to see how 2024 is starting off after the first slow real estate year in a long time.

Rates have settled down and are trending down.

Prices have shown resilience and continue to go up.

But, how about transactions? Are they picking up after a year that saw an 18% decline in the number of closed residential properties?

It turns out the year is starting off strong but not unusually strong.

Pending transactions are up in Larimer County 7% year over year and up 3% in Weld County.

So, we are already seeing signs that 2024 will be a year of growth compared to last year.

BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts December 15, 2023

Price Plummet

For anyone waiting for home prices to drop before making a buying decision, there is good news.

The recent plummet in mortgage rates means that home prices, effectively, just took a big dip.

Rates have gone down by 1% in the last 45 days which means that a prospective home buyer’s payment is 10% less today than what it would have been at the end of October.

For example, the Principal and Interest payment for a $500,000 loan is $341 less today than what it was 45 days ago.

So, from a buyer’s perspective, prices have gone down by 10% in a very short time.

BlogFun Facts December 1, 2023

Most Surprising News

The most surprising piece of news for our friends and clients is that prices are essentially flat compared to last year.  People find that surprising given what interest rates have done over the last 18 months.  They wonder, how could prices not fall significantly after interest rates jumped considerably?

The answer is the fundamental economic lesson of supply and demand.

There is enough demand in the market for the current supply to keep prices stable even in an environment of higher rates.

Now that rates are (finally) trending down, it gives us even more confidence about the continued growth of real estate prices along the Front Range.

Here is a look at how home prices compare to one year ago:

Larimer County = Down 0.8%

Weld County = Up 3.4%

Metro Denver = Up 0.8%

BlogFun Facts November 10, 2023

A Rate-Induced Pop

The recent drop in mortgage rates triggered a measurable uptick in sales activity.

So far through the first 10 days of November, pending activity in Northern Colorado is up versus the same 10 days last year.

This is despite interest rates being higher than they were last year.

Mortgage rates just had their biggest one-week drop in over a year and buyers clearly responded.

Pending sales through November so far are up versus last year:

48% in Larimer County

20% in Weld County

BlogFun Facts August 28, 2023

Where It’s At

New Homes are where it’s at.

By ‘it,’ we mean inventory.

Given low supply of existing homes, home buyers have figured out that new homes offer an effective place to find homes for sale.

Here are the stats…

Inventory of existing homes is down 7.7% year over year. And, last year’s inventory was historically low.

Meanwhile, sales of new homes rose 4.4%. This increase was much more than most analysts expected.

New Homes are where it is at.

BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts March 24, 2023

No Middle Class

“The middle class is going away” is an often-used adage when talking about society. It is also a good way to describe today’s real estate market.  When it comes to properties for sale, the middle class has gone away.There is a class of listings which are priced to the market, in great condition, with world-class marketing.Then, there are those that are overpriced, not in good condition, with sub-par marketing.Properties in the first class are selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and sometimes even over list price.Properties in the second class are sitting on the market.Sellers, who want a successful result, must be in the first class.Buyers, who want a bargain or who want to ‘wheel and deal,’ can typically only find those opportunities in the second class.Here’s the thing.  Rising interest rates have caused buyers to be more picky.  Yet, low inventory has caused competition for the best properties.Both sellers and buyers need to know there is no middle class when it comes to listings.

BlogFun Facts March 17, 2023

March Madness

When things get crazy on Wall Street, it’s often good for real estate.

Uncertainty in the stock market attracts investors to the stability offered by Treasury Bonds.

Higher demand for bonds means lower interest rates which is obviously good for real estate buyers.

“Turbulence in the financial markets is putting significant downward pressure on rates” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

After peaking at just over 7% at the end of October, rates have been trending down.

The current rate on a 30-year loan is 6.6%.  A year ago it was 4.16%.

BlogFun Facts August 15, 2022

What Gives?

 

“I thought the market was cooling off, so why are prices still going up?”

This is a frequent question we hear from our clients.

They are understandably confused by the fact that average prices have continued to rise at a rapid pace even though sales activity is slower than what it was 6 months ago.

Bottom line, they want to know why prices are up along the Front Range anywhere from 12% to 17% compared to last year.

Firstly, we don’t expect this pace of price appreciation to continue.  What we foresee is price growth going back to the long term average of 5% to 6% per year.

The reason why we still see double-digit growth comes down to two words.  Supply and Demand.

Supply, while higher than a year ago, is still relatively low.

Also, demand, while lower than a year ago, is still relatively high.

The market is still healthy, just not as frantic as it was.

Properties are still selling, but bidding wars and multiple offers have mostly gone away.

Sellers remain in a strong position, but they face more competition than before.

BlogFun Facts May 21, 2022

What We Notice

Here is what we notice about the market right now:

  • Listings are receiving fewer offers compared to 60 days ago – instead of 10 offers, a listing might have 2.
  • There are now several instances of a listing only having one offer.
  • Sellers who were overly-aggressive with their list price have to quickly reduce in order to generate activity.
  • Inventory is up and in some areas significantly, giving buyers more options and flexibility.
  • Home buyers who are under contract with a new home waiting for that new home to be built have been negatively impacted by rising rates.
  • More buyers are considering 7 and 10-year mortgage products in order to have a lower interest rate.
  • The pendulum is swinging away from the drastic seller’s market we have seen for the last 18 months.