Blog • Fun Facts • May 19, 2023

Months of Supply

by Rondi duPont

As measured by months of supply, we have a strong Seller’s market in Northern Colorado.

Both Larimer County and Weld County measure at 1.6 months of supply.

That means, at the current pace of sales, it would take only about 6 weeks to sell all of the existing homes for sale.

The measurement becomes even more interesting when we look at specific price ranges.

Under $500,000 is 1.0 months in Larimer and 0.9 in Weld.

$500,000 to $700,000 is 1.6 months in Larimer and 2.0 in Weld.

$700,000 to $1,000,000 is 2.0 months in Larimer and 3.0 in Weld.

And, over $1,000,000 is 3.6 months in Larimer and 5.3 in Weld.

We are not surprised to see higher months of inventory in higher price ranges.

It is interesting that even $1,000,000 properties have less than 6 months.

Blog • For Buyers & Sellers • Fun Facts • April 7, 2023

Dropping Inventory

by Rondi duPont

Breaking News – months of inventory has dropped significantly signifying an uptick in real estate activity along the Front Range.‘Months of inventory’ is an important statistic and something we commonly talk about in this blog. It simply measures how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.As a reminder, a market is ‘balanced’ when there is four to six months of inventory on the market.During the fast-paced market of June 2020 to June 2022, this statistic dropped to less than one month.During the market cooling of last Winter, it increased to over two months.Now, it is back to nearly one month of supply signaling a clear seller’s market.Of course, all markets are hyper-local and this number can vary based on specific price point and specific location.However, looking at ‘months of inventory’ from a big picture view, offers a good understanding of overall market conditions.Here is what months of inventory is for each Front Range market:Larimer County = 1.3 MonthsWeld County = 1.2 Months Metro Denver = 1.1 Months

Blog • February 24, 2023

A Little Perspective

by Rondi duPont

Those of us in the real estate industry agree that the years 2020 to 2022 were anomalies. During that time there were unique factors which drove abnormally high real estate activity. The number of transactions that occurred in those three years were at levels never seen before.It has become customary to compare the market in 2023 to the years 2016 to 2019 when looking at the number of closed transactions.Here’s what is interesting, while the number of closings so far this year is much less than last year, it is very close to what we saw in the more normal market of 2016 to 2019.Last month, 295 properties closed in Larimer County and 296 closed in Weld.The average January during 2016 to 2019 was 334 in Larimer and 303 in Weld.So, this year is only 12% lower than the average in Larimer County and 2% lower in Weld.

Uncategorized • January 13, 2023

Versus 2019

by Rondi duPont

Because 2021 and 2020 were such unique years in real estate because of the considerably low interest rates, many people in our industry believe it makes sense to compare 2022 to 2019 when looking at the key statistics.

Here’s how 2022 looked along the Front Range compared to 2019:

Prices Number of Transactions Properties for Sale

Larimer County +41% -6% -37%

Weld County +39% +2% -16%

Metro Denver +40% -14% -6%

Generally, what we notice is that:

Prices are up significantly
The number of transactions is similar
Inventory is down compared to 2019 even though it is more than double 2021’s inventory

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1^st at 5:30pm. To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

Blog • Fun Facts • December 9, 2022

Way Under

by Rondi duPont

The Nation’s real estate market is significantly under-supplied.According to the most recent research from Freddie Mac, the United States has a housing supply deficit of 3.8 million units.The available inventory today is lower than it has ever been in the last 40 years and is 3.5x lower than the peak of 2008.The reason why available inventory is so low, is the low amount of new home starts that have occurred over the last 15 years.Builders have faced many obstacles trying to keep up with housing demand including supply chain issues, labor supply, land availability, water availability, and stricter approval processes.Fewer new homes were built in the decade ending 2018 than any other decade since the 1960’s.The reality is, the obstacles builders face are unlikely to change significantly in the foreseeable future.Low inventory is likely to persist.An under-supplied market is a key reason leading economists do not expect home prices to crash even while the market cools off.

Blog • Fun Facts • December 2, 2022

Mis-Led

by Rondi duPont

The most misleading stat about the housing market is increase in inventory. The number of properties for sale is up significantly compared to last year. In most locations along the Front Range, inventory has doubled.This is obviously great news for buyers because they now have more choice.This is obviously meaningful for sellers because they now have more competition.But, it does not mean there is a glut of inventory. It does not mean that we are now, all of a sudden, over-supplied.Quite the contrary. The market is still undersupplied. There would need to be at least double the amount of homes for sale for Front Range real estate to begin to be balanced.The increase in inventory, being so large, gets a lot of attention in the media and can sometimes be taken the wrong way.Yes, inventory has doubled. But, it has doubled compared to all time lows.Freddie Mac reports that Nationally, the market is undersupplied by 3.8 million housing units.So, the increase in homes for sale is a good thing for the market and is nothing like a glut of inventory.

Blog • Fun Facts • October 14, 2022

Halfway Check

by Rondi duPont

This is a market which is changing quickly. We are studying the numbers every day so we can be clear about where the market is heading.

Here is a check on the market halfway through October.

Compared to last October…

Available inventory is up 73% in Northern Colorado and up 112% in Metro Denver. This is significant for buyers who, for years, were challenged with limited selection.
Number of closed transactions is down 50% in Northern Colorado and 41% in Metro Denver. This reflects the fact that fewer buyers are active right now given higher interest rates.

Prices continue to be higher than last year. They are up 12% in Northern Colorado and 13% in Metro Denver. We don’t expect double-digit increases to continue, but don’t expect anything like a price crash.

Blog • Fun Facts • August 26, 2022

Like 1993

by Rondi duPont

Here’s a trivia question…

The number of new, single-family homes completed in 2022 will most closely resemble which prior year?

If you guessed 1993, you are correct.

Yes, the number of homes built and completed this year is no more than the number from 30 years ago.

In 2022, there will be just over 1 million single family homes constructed in the U.S. which is the same as 1993.

This is much more than the bottom of construction in 2011 which saw just under 500,000 new homes built.

But it is also much less than the top of 2006 which had almost 1.7 million.

Limited new home construction today is preventing anything close to a glut of inventory on the market which, in turn, insulates us from any sort of major price correction.

Blog • Fun Facts • August 19, 2022