Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!
Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?
Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?
Here’s the deal…
The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.
What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.
What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.
In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.
For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June. Whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.
A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.
We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.
The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.
It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org
Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.
What if we told you there is a real estate market that has seen a 300% increase in sales volume in only 5 years?
What if we told you that market was right in our back yard?
The market is Wellington and what is happening there is extraordinary.
Because price increases in Fort Collins have eliminated virtually all options for the sub $300,000 buyer, Wellington has become a very popular place to buy a home.
In June of 2012, the average price there was $185,000. Today it is $300,500!
In 2012 there were 222 residential sales in Wellington. This year is on pace to ecliplse 500.
Yes, Wellington has exploded and we don’t see it slowing down any time soon!
Fun facts about Wellington:
The Town of Wellington was an oil, coal and agricultural hub throughout the 1800s and became a stopping location for wagon trains, travelers, and military movement between Cheyenne, Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado. The town was founded in 1902, incorporated in 1905 and named after C.L. Wellington, an employee of the Colorado and Southern Railroad.
Around the same time the population began to grow in Wellington, woolly mammoth remains were discovered by a construction crew while digging foundations for new homes. The remains were carefully excavated by a University of Colorado team while residents watched with excitement. Unfortunately, after being taken back to the University for further examination, the tusks were dropped and shattered on a floor. In recognition and remembrance of this event, the subdivision where they were found named a street Mammoth Circle.
Wellington maintained a population around 500 throughout the 20th century and grew to about 1,000 until the early 2000s. Today, Wellington is home to a population of nearly 8,300 residents.
Fun Facts & Image Source: www.townofwellington.com
Did you know that during the 30 years between 1965 and 1995 the homeownership rate stayed between 63% and 66%?
Then everything changed as government policies were put in place to encourage a higher percentage of homeowners. During the housing bubble the rate approached 70%.
As the bubble burst, this percentage fell rapidly and eventually bottomed out at 62.9%. Today it sits at 63.7% which is right inside the range of where it was between 1965 and 1995. As we see it, it’s right where it needs to be.
The fact that the homeownership rate sits at “normal” levels is one of three reasons we don’t see a national housing bubble today.
The President of Windermere Colorado, Eric Thompson, created a short video for you which shows you all three reasons. To watch the video, CLICK HERE.
The Federal Reserve raised their benchmark interest rate 0.25% this week.
Some perspective is in order…
First, mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed Funds rate. They are, however, closely tied to the 10-year Treasury.
While the Fed was raising their rates this week, mortgage rates actually dipped lower (although slightly).
Mortgage rates today on a 30-year loan are essentially 4.25%.
The long term average for mortage rates, going all the way back to 1970 is 7.5%
For every 1% rise in rates, there is a corresponding 10% impact to the monthly payment.
Mortgage rates have increased about 0.75% since the election.
Most economists expect rates to increase another 0.5% by year-end.
I am watching mortgage rates closely and will continue to keep my customers updated as to where the experts think they are heading.
You’ve probably heard that prices are up in Northern Colorado
Another source just confirmed this.
The Federal Housing Finance Authority recently released their quarterly report on 260 metropolitan markets across the country.
Northern Colorado is well-represented on this list.
- 11th Fort Collins/Loveland
- 12th Greeley
- 15th Boulder
By the way, Denver is 14th. And in case you are wondering, Palm Bay Florida is ranked 1st.
All of the Northern Colorado cities have had just over 10% appreciation in the last year meaning that prices are growing at about double the long-term average.
To receive a copy of the full FHFA report, simply email me at email@example.com and I will get one in your hands right away.
So how’s the luxury market? Let’s look…
Over the last year, 63 of these properties have sold.
This means it would take 17 months to sell all of these luxury properties at the current pace of sales.
Where do most of these sales occur? The most active city is Fort Collins with 18 luxury sales followed by Loveland with 13.
The most active neighborhood in all of Northern Colorado for luxury properties is the Harmony Club in Timnath with 8 sales.
Windermere Real Estate is proud to have represented the most expensive home to sell in Northern Colorado in the last two years – a $2,800,000 property in the Harmony Club which featured a gourmet French Kitchen, reclaimed barnwood floors and handmade peg wood beams.
Contact me to learn more about our Premier Properties program which is custom designed to sell luxury homes.
Spring selling season is right around the corner. We are seeing the activity buzz starting already in the market. If you missed our Forecast event we held in January, we have put together a quick recap video for you to review. Click on the video below to hear more!
Additional questions? Let me know!
The hottest question we get in Northern Colorado is this “do you think Fort Collins is the next Boulder?”
Let’s look closely at that question and start with what is similar. They are both beautiful college towns nestled against the foothills. They both have affordability issues which push real estate buyers to satellite communities (what is happening is Wellington is not unlike what happened in Louisville).
Yet there are differences at a fundamental level that will forever keep these two places very different from each other. For example, the average Household Income in Boulder is 60% higher than Fort Collins. Here is another big deal, Boulder is only half the size of Fort Collins (25 square miles versus 57 square miles). And get this, the City of Boulder owns 71 square miles of open space in and around the City.
Essentially Boulder is a small island surrounded by an ocean of open space inhabited by very high income-earners. That is why the average price of a single family home in Boulder is now over $1 million.
We put together a short video which shows you more detail about this hot question. You can watch it here:
Last week Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner joined us for our annual Market Forecast events in Colorado. We were pleased to host over 500 customers at two events in Denver and Fort Collins.
Here are some of the big takeaways that we shared:
- Interest rates will increase to 4.6% by the end of the year
- First-time buyers are back and will make up 47% of all buyers in 2017
- Inventory will remain at record lows and will continue to drive up prices
- Appreciation is expected to be between 9% and 7% accross our Front Range markets
- Home builders will get creative in order to hit lower price points – we will see more “tiny homes” and more homes without basements
Click HERE to see Matthew Gardner’s infographic on the 2017 Forecast.