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No two alike
Anyone who has more than one child is frequently amazed by the difference between the children. How is it that two kids from the same parents are so different from each other?
Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Clients are constantly reading about and hearing about the “hot” market. They make assumptions that every price range and every location in Larimer and Weld Counties are on fire. Not true!
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
- Under $500,000 is 1.2
- Between $500,000 and $1,000,000 is 4.2
- Over $1,000,000 is 11.7
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!
Signs of Slowing?
An article in last week’s Denver Post about the Metro Denver market cooling off has prompted questions from our clients.
Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?
Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?
Here’s the deal…
The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.
What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.
What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.
In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.
For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June. Whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.
A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.
We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.
The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.
It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing rdupont@windermere.com
Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.
The Wellington Explosion
What if we told you there is a real estate market that has seen a 300% increase in sales volume in only 5 years?
What if we told you that market was right in our back yard?
The market is Wellington and what is happening there is extraordinary.
Because price increases in Fort Collins have eliminated virtually all options for the sub $300,000 buyer, Wellington has become a very popular place to buy a home.
In June of 2012, the average price there was $185,000. Today it is $300,500!
In 2012 there were 222 residential sales in Wellington. This year is on pace to ecliplse 500.
Yes, Wellington has exploded and we don’t see it slowing down any time soon!
Fun facts about Wellington:
A History Lesson
The national homeownership rate is a very interesting statistic to track. It is simply the percentage of households in the country which are owned by the occupant (versus rented).
Now What?
The Federal Reserve raised their benchmark interest rate 0.25% this week.
So what does this mean for real estate?
Some perspective is in order…
First, mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed Funds rate. They are, however, closely tied to the 10-year Treasury.
While the Fed was raising their rates this week, mortgage rates actually dipped lower (although slightly).
Mortgage rates today on a 30-year loan are essentially 4.25%.
The long term average for mortage rates, going all the way back to 1970 is 7.5%
For every 1% rise in rates, there is a corresponding 10% impact to the monthly payment.
Mortgage rates have increased about 0.75% since the election.
Most economists expect rates to increase another 0.5% by year-end.
I am watching mortgage rates closely and will continue to keep my customers updated as to where the experts think they are heading.
The Results Are In!
You’ve probably heard that prices are up in Northern Colorado
Another source just confirmed this.
The Federal Housing Finance Authority recently released their quarterly report on 260 metropolitan markets across the country.
Get this, Colorado has 4 cities ranked in the top 15 for yearly price growth.
Northern Colorado is well-represented on this list.
- 11th Fort Collins/Loveland
- 12th Greeley
- 15th Boulder
By the way, Denver is 14th. And in case you are wondering, Palm Bay Florida is ranked 1st.
All of the Northern Colorado cities have had just over 10% appreciation in the last year meaning that prices are growing at about double the long-term average.
To receive a copy of the full FHFA report, simply email me at rdupont@windermere.com and I will get one in your hands right away.
Signs of Slowing
It's not just temperatures cooling off as we transition from summer to fall, there are signs that the market is cooling as well.
The numbers are in and both Loveland and Fort Collins had their slowest August in several years.
Loveland had 127 single family home sales last month. This is 16% lower than August 2015 and the slowest August for Loveland since 2012.
Fort Collins had their slowest August since 2011 with 206 single family sales. This is 13% lower than last year.
This is good news for buyers who may have been reluctant to enter the multiple-offer frenzy that occurred this past spring. It looks like we are moving toward a more "normal" market.
Colorado’s Home Appreciation
With the Olympics stoking the spirit of competition, we took at look at how Colorado stacks up against the other states when it comes to real estate prices.
Our impartial judge for the competition is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who tracks close to 300 real estate markets all over the country.
For this competition we are looking at home price appreciation over the last five years. Simply, how much have prices gone up for each state?
And the winner is… (not Colorado)
The winner is Nevada with a 68% increase in the last five years.
Here's the top 5:
1. Nevada 68%
2. Arizona 57%
3. California 54%
4. Florida 53%
5. Colorado 48%
Here's the deal about this list- other than Colorado, these are all the states that were hit hardest by the real estate downturn in 2008 & 2009. These states are still clawing their way out of the hole that was created. While Colorado continues to show a more steady pattern without the wild swings seen in other places.
The Estes Park Mountain Market
With fall right around the corner many of us will be trekking up to Estes Park to see the Aspen leaves turning.
As you drive through Estes you may wonder "how's the mountain market?"
Here are some fun facts about real estate in Estes Park.
- The average price today is $394,046 – not that different than Fort Collins.
- Average prices have gone up $60,000 in the last three years.
- Their market has about 300 sales per year- roughly a tenth of the amount in Fort Collins.
- If you were looking for a home in Estes between $300,000 and $500,000, you would have 15 to choose from.
Now you know about the Mountain Market!
