BlogFun FactsUncategorized July 21, 2023

Year to Date

Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

BlogFun Facts June 16, 2023

High Active

The average price of all active listings is likely much higher than you think.

For example, the average listing price of the nearly 5000 properties for sale in Metro Denver is nearly $1,000,000.

Here is the average price of all active listings along the Front Range:

Larimer County: $886,000

Weld County: $736,000

Metro Denver: $939,000

BlogFun Facts May 12, 2023

More New

Nationally, new home inventory as a percentage of the total inventory just hit a record high. 26% of all properties currently available for sale are brand new homes.

To put this in perspective, in 2018 it was 14%. From 2000 to 2008 it bounced between 10% and 15%

Locally, we notice even higher numbers.

In Larimer County, 29% of all inventory is brand new. In Weld County, it is a whopping 35%.

The reason why the percentage is high is not so much because of a surge in new construction, but because the amount of re-sale properties listed for sale is so low.

The Front Range has an under-supplied market, especially when it comes to re-sale properties.

BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts March 24, 2023

No Middle Class

“The middle class is going away” is an often-used adage when talking about society. It is also a good way to describe today’s real estate market.  When it comes to properties for sale, the middle class has gone away.There is a class of listings which are priced to the market, in great condition, with world-class marketing.Then, there are those that are overpriced, not in good condition, with sub-par marketing.Properties in the first class are selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and sometimes even over list price.Properties in the second class are sitting on the market.Sellers, who want a successful result, must be in the first class.Buyers, who want a bargain or who want to ‘wheel and deal,’ can typically only find those opportunities in the second class.Here’s the thing.  Rising interest rates have caused buyers to be more picky.  Yet, low inventory has caused competition for the best properties.Both sellers and buyers need to know there is no middle class when it comes to listings.

BlogFun Facts March 17, 2023

March Madness

When things get crazy on Wall Street, it’s often good for real estate.

Uncertainty in the stock market attracts investors to the stability offered by Treasury Bonds.

Higher demand for bonds means lower interest rates which is obviously good for real estate buyers.

“Turbulence in the financial markets is putting significant downward pressure on rates” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

After peaking at just over 7% at the end of October, rates have been trending down.

The current rate on a 30-year loan is 6.6%.  A year ago it was 4.16%.

BlogFun Facts March 10, 2023

Equity Cushion

You may remember the term “Home ATM” from the mid 2000’s. This term stemmed from the abundance of homeowners who pulled significant amounts of equity from their homes in the form of Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. Home values dropping in 2008, 2009 and 2010 caused many homeowners to be ‘underwater’ meaning that, all at once, their home was worth less than they owed.

Today, there are two big differences compared to the Home ATM years.

First, homeowners today have a lot of equity and very few homeowners are underwater. Of all the properties in the U.S. with mortgages, only 2.1% have negative equity. At the end of 2009, 24% of properties were underwater.

Second, homeowners are not pulling cash out of their homes like they were in the mid 2000’s. Net Equity Extraction is only 1.6% of disposable income compared to 8% during the housing bubble years.

Blog February 24, 2023

A Little Perspective

Those of us in the real estate industry agree that the years 2020 to 2022 were anomalies.  During that time there were unique factors which drove abnormally high real estate activity. The number of transactions that occurred in those three years were at levels never seen before.It has become customary to compare the market in 2023 to the years 2016 to 2019 when looking at the number of closed transactions.Here’s what is interesting, while the number of closings so far this year is much less than last year, it is very close to what we saw in the more normal market of 2016 to 2019.Last month, 295 properties closed in Larimer County and 296 closed in Weld.The average January during 2016 to 2019 was 334 in Larimer and 303 in Weld.So, this year is only 12% lower than the average in Larimer County and 2% lower in Weld.

BlogFun Facts February 17, 2023

Rate Predication

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner predicts that interest rates will hit 5.4% by the end of 2023.

His prediction is aligned with most expert real estate economists.

While rates will continue to bounce up and down as the year goes on, the general trend will be lower rates.

This prediction is mainly based on the Fed tempering their increases as inflation starts to ease in the second half of the year.

Because of this prediction, we see housing demand increasing as rates decrease throughout the year.

BlogFun Facts February 10, 2023

Jobs Bounce

As the job market goes, so goes the housing market.  This is a fact about any primary housing market.

If employment is growing, the housing market will keep growing.

One of the many positive indicators of the healthy Northern Colorado economy is the fact that the jobs lost during the pandemic have bounced back.

Not only has employment recovered, it now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Northern Colorado unemployment is now down to 4.1%.

These facts were reported by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner during our annual Market Forecast event.

If you would like to see any of the slides from the presentation, please let us know.

BlogFun Facts January 20, 2023

No Bear

Altos Research is one of the most trusted sources of real estate market information in the United States.  Each week they track every single home for sale across the Country.  They analyze the pricing, supply, demand, and status changes for all listings.  This amount of data allows them to expertly predict changes in the market.

Their founder, Mike Simonsen, recently said this about the current state of the real estate market:

“The most important thing to take away is that the most bearish scenarios for home prices this year are not taking place.   If a buyer is sitting on the sidelines waiting for a home price crash, in general across the country that’s not happening.

“We can measure demand and the direction of future sales prices by looking at the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This number, frankly, is lower than I would have expected given how few buyers were out in the fall. This a sign that sellers are not panicking and that smart, properly priced listings are getting their offers.”