BlogFun Facts June 30, 2023

How Would Have Guessed?

Pretend it is 2013. The real estate market is clearly recovering from the Great Recession. The Broncos are having a great year and will eventually make it to the Super Bowl.

Now, imagine someone makes a prediction that 10 years in the future mortgage interest rates would double over the course of 12 months.

If you were to guess what sort of impact on house prices that would cause, what would you say?

It would be reasonable to guess that prices would decline if mortgage rates doubled.

Here’s what really happened. Prices kept going up.

Some thought prices would crash. Many thought prices would go down.

They keep going up. Not as fast as they were, but they are still up.

Compared to one year ago, prices are up the following amounts:

Larimer County = 2.6%

Weld County = 2.2%

Metro Denver = 1.1%

Why? Supply and demand.

Supply is low and there is still demand in the market.

BlogFun Facts June 2, 2023

Not What Many Thought

Despite higher interest rates, prices did not decrease like many people thought. They certainly have not crashed like many thought.

Average prices along the Front Range have seen only a slight decrease versus last year.

The average price in May this year has decreased versus May of last year by:

 

2.5% in Larimer County

3.2% in Weld County

2.8% in Metro Denver

 

When we take a closer look, what is apparent is that average prices have decreased based on the type of properties that are selling versus last year.

Specifically, there were more $1,000,000 – plus homes selling a year ago versus today. Those higher-end transactions in 2022 increased the average price.

In May of 2023, $1,000,000- plus transactions decreased versus May of 2022 by:

 

33% in Larimer County

29% in Weld County

35% in Metro Denver

 

So, we don’t see that prices have gone down. We see that average price has slightly decreased because they aren’t as many luxury sales pulling up the average.

BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts May 5, 2023

TAX ASSESSMENT TIME

This week’s fun fact is that you just received your new valuation from your County Assessor and you have until June 8th to protest the value.

By statute, properties in Colorado are re-assessed every two years and owners are given their new Assessed Valuation in early May.

This year, many Colorado property owners are surprised by the amount their property’s value went up in just two years.

An important reason why many increases are substantial is based on the timing of comparable sales.

By statue, each County will only consider comparable sales used for the valuation between 7/1/2020 and 6/30/22.

This particular 24-month period happens to be one of the most active and robust real estate markets in history.

It can also be confusion that a new valuation received in May 2023 is based on comparable sales from way back in 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.

If you do plan to protest, comparable sales during that same 24-month period are the only ones which can be considered.

You may have questions about your new valuation and you may want to protest.

In any case, I am happy to help you.

Simply reach out to me!

BlogFun Facts February 3, 2023

Equity Rich!

Homeowners in Northern Colorado have a bunch of equity in their homes.This fact was reported by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at our annual Real Estate Market Forecast event.The term ‘equity rich’ is defined as someone who has at least 50% equity in their home.For example, if someone owns a home worth $500,000 and their mortgage balance is less than $250,000, they are ‘equity rich.’A whopping 57% of Larimer County homeowners and 46% of Weld County homeowners are equity rich.To put that in perspective, in 2015 there were roughly 20% of Northern Colorado homeowners who had this much equity in their homes.This level of equity is one of many reasons Northern Colorado is protected from any sort of severe market downturn resulting from an excessive amount of distressed properties hitting the market.

Uncategorized January 13, 2023

Versus 2019

Because 2021 and 2020 were such unique years in real estate because of the considerably low interest rates, many people in our industry believe it makes sense to compare 2022 to 2019 when looking at the key statistics.

Here’s how 2022 looked along the Front Range compared to 2019:

                                             Prices                   Number of Transactions                Properties for Sale

Larimer County                 +41%                    -6%                                                     -37%

Weld County                     +39%                    +2%                                                    -16%

Metro Denver                   +40%                    -14%                                                   -6%

Generally, what we notice is that:

  • Prices are up significantly
  • The number of transactions is similar
  • Inventory is down compared to 2019 even though it is more than double 2021’s inventory

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1st at 5:30pm.  To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

Blog January 6, 2023

RSVP Time

There are four key questions that our clients have right now:1. What will values do this year and is there any chance of a housing bubble?2. When will mortgage rates drop below 6%?3. Will inflation subside this year?4. Is now a good time to buy or sell? All of these questions will be answered by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner on February 1st at our annual Market Forecast.  Fun Fact, Windermere is the only real estate brokerage in the United States with a Chief Economist. You can RSVP for Matthew’s lively and informative presentation at ColoradoForecast.com.The Windermere Forecast is at 5:30pm on Wednesday, February 1st at the Fort Collins Marriott.

BlogFun Facts December 9, 2022

Way Under

The Nation’s real estate market is significantly under-supplied.According to the most recent research from Freddie Mac, the United States has a housing supply deficit of 3.8 million units.The available inventory today is lower than it has ever been in the last 40 years and is 3.5x lower than the peak of 2008.The reason why available inventory is so low, is the low amount of new home starts that have occurred over the last 15 years.Builders have faced many obstacles trying to keep up with housing demand including supply chain issues, labor supply, land availability, water availability, and stricter approval processes.Fewer new homes were built in the decade ending 2018 than any other decade since the 1960’s.The reality is, the obstacles builders face are unlikely to change significantly in the foreseeable future.Low inventory is likely to persist.An under-supplied market is a key reason leading economists do not expect home prices to crash even while the market cools off.

BlogFun Facts October 28, 2022

Luxury is Stronger

The market above $1,000,000 is stronger than the market overall.This is true in both Northern Colorado and Metro Denver.The luxury market is not slowing to the same degree as the overall market.In Northern Colorado:
  • Closed transactions are down 41% in the overall market and 26% in the luxury market over $1,000,000
  • Pending transactions are down 44% overall and only 13% in the luxury market
In Metro Denver:
  • Closed transactions are down 40% overall and only 13% over $1,000,000
  • Pending transactions are down 41% overall and only 17% in the luxury market
This is likely because higher-end buyers are not as sensitive to higher interest rates and there tend to be more cash transactions in the luxury market.
BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts October 7, 2022

Toward Balance

Our market is moving toward a balanced market, but it is still unbalanced.

By definition, a balanced market has between 4 and 6 months of inventory for sale.

Today there is essentially two months.  One year ago, there was only 3 weeks of inventory.

It has actually been 16 years since the market has been in balance.

So, while we still have a ways to go before it is balanced, it is moving that way.

BlogFun Facts September 2, 2022

New Rankings

The latest Home Price Index report has just been released by the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

They track home price appreciation for the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. plus state by state appreciation.

Here is the ranking of the top three states for price growth over the last twelve months:

1.  Florida = 29%

2.  Arizona = 26%

3.  North Carolina = 25%

The bottom three states are:

50.  North Dakota = 10%

49.  Louisiana = 11%

48.  Minnesota = 11%

Colorado came in at #19 with 18% price growth over the last 12 months.