BlogFun Facts March 1, 2024

Leap Year

The statistic that is leaping so far in 2024 is inventory.

Northern Colorado is seeing a big uptick in number of homes for sale.

However, it is not an alarming amount and is still a ‘Seller’s Market’ by definition.

Larimer County inventory is up 39% and Weld County is up 48%.

Months of inventory is up to 2.3 in Larimer County from 1.7 months a year ago.

Weld County is also at 2.3 months today and was only 1.2 months a year ago.

With higher inventory comes more selection for buyers and more importance for sellers to price right.

BlogFor Buyers & SellersFun Facts April 7, 2023

Dropping Inventory

Breaking News – months of inventory has dropped significantly signifying an uptick in real estate activity along the Front Range.‘Months of inventory’ is an important statistic and something we commonly talk about in this blog. It simply measures how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.As a reminder, a market is ‘balanced’ when there is four to six months of inventory on the market.During the fast-paced market of June 2020 to June 2022, this statistic dropped to less than one month.During the market cooling of last Winter, it increased to over two months.Now, it is back to nearly one month of supply signaling a clear seller’s market.Of course, all markets are hyper-local and this number can vary based on specific price point and specific location.However, looking at ‘months of inventory’ from a big picture view, offers a good understanding of overall market conditions.Here is what months of inventory is for each Front Range market:Larimer County = 1.3 MonthsWeld County = 1.2 Months Metro Denver = 1.1 Months

Blog April 22, 2022

Half A Month

There is half of a month of inventory on the market.  In other words, at the current pace of sales, it would take just two weeks to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale along the Front Range.

By definition, a market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory.  Anything less than that is a seller’s market.

The current inventory levels give us confidence about the future of price growth along the Front Range.

While we expect the pace of price appreciation to slow, the low supply of properties insulates us against any sort of price decline.

BlogFun Facts October 1, 2021

Slight Increase

A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

  •  Larimer County = 25 days
  • Weld County = 23 days
  • Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

For Buyers & SellersFun Facts September 10, 2021

Staggering Stat

By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.

Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.

For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.

Here is a staggering stat for you…

At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.

This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.

Here are the numbers:

• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.

BlogGardner Report April 29, 2021

Q1 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following the decline in employment last winter, Colorado has started to add jobs back into its economy. The latest data shows that the state has now recovered more than 219,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. This is certainly positive, but there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Denver and Fort Collins continue to have the greatest improvement in employment, but all markets show job levels well below pre-pandemic levels. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.6% in Fort Collins and Boulder to a high of 6.7% in Greeley. COVID-19 infection rates have started to increase again, and this has the potential to negatively impact the job market. I am hopeful that the state will not be forced to pull back reopening, but this is certainly not assured.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ 2021 started off on a bit of a sour note, with total sales down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2020. Sales were 29.2% lower than in the final quarter of 2020 as 8,645 homes sold.

❱ Sales were higher in four of the counties contained in this report, were essentially flat in one, and dropped in seven. It was pleasing to see significant sales growth in the large counties of Denver and Adams.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 4.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% higher than a year ago.

❱ The disappointing number of home sales overall can primarily be attributed to the woeful lack of inventory. Listings in the quarter were down more than 61% year over year and were 40.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 16.5% year over year, to an average of $556,100. Home prices were also 4.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Buyers appear to be out in force, and this demand—in concert with very low levels of inventory—continues to heat the market.

❱ Prices rose over last year across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of the very small Gilpin County. All other counties saw sizeable gains and the trend of double-digit price growth continued unabated.

❱ Affordability levels are becoming a greater concern as prices rise at a far faster pace than wages. Even though mortgage rates have started to rise, they haven’t yet reached the level needed to take some of the heat out of the market.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, down one day from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in all but two counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The relatively low level of home sales is not a surprise given how few choices there are for buyers. Sellers are certainly benefitting from strong demand, as demonstrated by the significant price growth. I maintain my belief that there will be an increase in inventory as we move through the year, but it is highly unlikely that we will see a balanced market in 2021.

Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to continue to exceed supply.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogEconomics 101Gardner ReportUncategorized March 10, 2021

Q4 2020 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The job recovery that appeared to be firmly in place in the summer has started to wane. Though Colorado has recovered more than 209,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, employment levels remain almost 210,000 below the level seen last February. Even with employment growth stalling, the unemployment rate stands at a relatively respectable 6.4%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.9% in Greeley. Rising COVID-19 infection rates continue to impact the job recovery, and I do not see much in the way of palpable improvement until a vaccine becomes freely available, likely in the second half of this year.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of 2020, 12,207 homes sold. This represents an increase of 21.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, but 19% lower than in the third quarter. I am not concerned, though, because seasonal influences tend to impact sales in the winter.

❱ Sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.

❱ Inventory levels remain well below what I would like to see. The average number of homes on the market in the fourth quarter was down 55% from the same period in 2019.

❱ Pending sales were 34% lower compared to the third quarter. Again, seasonality and a lack of homes to buy impact this figure. Pending sales are still 13% higher than a year ago.

Colorado Counties Graph

COLORADO HOME PRICES

Price appreciation in various Colorado counties.

❱ Home prices rose significantly in the fourth quarter, with the average price increasing 13.7% year-over-year to $532,492. Prices were up 1.8% compared to the third quarter of this year.

❱ Interest rates are unlikely to drop much further and this will lead price growth to slow as we move through 2021.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with significant appreciation in Clear Creek, Gilpin, Park, and El Paso counties. Every county but Arapahoe saw double-digit price gains.

❱ Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern as prices continue to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, I anticipate we will see price growth moderate in 2021.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in various Colorado counties.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 15 days compared to the final quarter of 2019.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ It took an average of 26 days to sell a home in the region, down 3 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and buyers are clearly competitive as suggested by the short length of time it is taking to sell a home.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various Colorado counties

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Home sales and prices are significantly higher than a year ago, and demand for housing is very much in place. Naturally, this favors home sellers who are still in control of the market. I do expect to see some improvement in listing activity this year, which, in concert with modestly rising interest rates, will likely start to take some of the steam out of the market. However, any moderation in the market has yet to appear. Even given the possible headwinds mentioned above, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to exceed supply for the time being.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogFun Facts July 10, 2020

More Homes Needed

More homes are needed to fulfill the need to buyer demand.

Compared to exactly one year ago, the supply of homes is down:

  • 32.6% in Metro Denver
  • 25.1% in Northern Colorado

An interesting and useful measurement we track is months of inventory.  This stat tells how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.

Of course, months of supply can vary greatly by price range and location.  However, this stat does a good job of explaining the overall state of the market.

Specifically, months of supply tells us if the market is in balance.

A ‘balanced’ market is when there is 4 to 6 months of supply.  A buyers market occurs when the stat is higher than this range.  A sellers market occurs when it is lower.

The months of supply looks like this in our market:

  • 1.0 months in Metro Denver
  • 1.3 months in Northern Colorado

So, the market overall is significantly under-supplied and more homes are needed to meet demand.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

 

BlogFun Facts April 12, 2019

Which Market?

Well, it depends!

First, let’s define each market. According to research, a buyer’s market exists when there is more than 4-6 months of inventory on the market.

If it would take longer than 4-6 months to sell out all of the inventory currently for sale, then it is a buyer’s market.

This calculation is obviously a function of the amount of inventory on the market and the current pace of sales.

A seller’s market exists if it would take shorter than 4-6 months.

So, which is it?

It depends very much on the price range.

Here are the numbers for Northern Colorado:

• $300,000 to $400,000 = 0.9 months
• $400,000 to $500,000 = 1.9 months
• $500,000 to $750,000 = 2.3 months
• $750,000 and over = 5.8 months

So, most price ranges are a clear seller’s market. It’s not until $750,000 and over that the market starts to approach a more balanced state.


Here’s one more thing that might help you…

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. I hope you can join!