2019 Annual Forecast

If you missed our Annual Forecast Review last month, click the link below to get a recap of the event:

 

 

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 8:31 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Forecast, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

OUR FORECAST

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Thank you to the 700 people who attended both events. We appreciate your support!

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:
• In 2018 Prices went up:
o 8% in Fort Collins
o 8% in Loveland
o 8.5% in Greeley
o 8% in Metro Denver

 Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
o Up 25% in Northern Colorado
o Up 45% in Metro Denver

• There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.

• There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
o New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
o Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
o The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
o The home ownership rate is back to the long-term average.

• Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
o 6% in Fort Collins
o 6% in Loveland
o 7% in Greeley
o 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands!

Posted on January 21, 2019 at 7:16 pm
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A History Lesson

One of the most common questions we hear from clients is “Where do you think interest rates are going?”

Virtually all of the experts we follow put rates above 5% going into next year and some see rates approaching 5.5% by the middle of 2019. What’s certain is that there are economic forces at work that are pushing rates higher.

So, how about a little history lesson? How do today’s 30- year mortgage rates compare to this same date in history going all the way back to 1990?

• Today = 4.85%
• 2017 = 3.94%
• 2015 = 3.82%
• 2010 = 4.27%
• 2005 = 5.98%
• 2000 = 7.84%
• 1995 = 7.75%
• 1990 = 10.22%

While today’s rates feel high only because they are higher than 2017, they are quite a bit lower than at many times in history.

Posted on October 21, 2018 at 5:59 pm
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2nd Quarter Gardner Report

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on July 31, 2018 at 7:51 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Fort Collins Realtor, Gardner Report, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Average Home Prices in Northern Colorado

Yesterday the Coloradoan ran a very good article about the increase of average home prices in Larimer County, which they stated has now reached $405,000.  

We thought this article may make you curious to know what the average prices are in each specific city in Northern Colorado:

  • Fort Collins = $453,051
  • Loveland = $402,132
  • Windsor = $463,769
  • Greeley = $310,785
  • Timnath = $604,481
  • Wellington = $338,999
  • Boulder = $1,105,634

source = IRES

Contact me today to find out what your home would be valued at in today’s market!

Posted on July 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm
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Double Up

Fort Collins, over the last 12 months, has seen sales of homes priced $1,000,000 and over almost double.

There have been 47 sales of these luxury properties during the last year compared to 24 sales the year before that.

The current pace of roughly 4 of these properties selling per month is both unprecedented and very different compared to the other Northern Colorado markets.

Loveland, Greeley and Windsor have only seen very slight increases in sales of homes priced over $1,000,000.

So where are these homes selling in Fort Collins? These are the top neighborhoods for luxury sales:

  1. Fossil Lake Ranch
  2. Old Town
  3. The Hill at Cobb Lake
  4. Linden Lake
Posted on June 15, 2018 at 4:42 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Fort Collins Realtor, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Top 5

Greeley is the 5th-ranked city in the whole country for one year appreciation. This is according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s most recent quarterly report. They track close to 300 markets all over the U.S.

For the first time in a long time, the Fort Collins/Loveland market did not make the top 20 list- they came in ranked 76th.

Greeley’s appreciation over the last year was 12.63% and Fort Collins/Loveland’s was 7.98%.

Who was first? Boise, Idaho with 15.25%.

Who was last? Peoria, Illinois whose prices fell 1.26%.

What about other Colorado cities?

  • Colorado Springs – 14th @ 11.65%
  • Grand Junction – 16th @ 11.47%
  • Denver – 28th @ 10.18%
  • Boulder – 68th @ 8.25%

Overall, prices in the U.S. increased by an average of 6.9%. A couple of interesting side notes- a minimum of 11% was required to make the top-20, and 18 of the top 20 are in the Western U.S.

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 25, 2018 at 6:56 pm
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66% Off

This just in…

For the month of April, the average price of a home in the city of Boulder was $1,247,000. This is according to the latest from our IRES MLS system. 

If you want to own a home about an hour down the road in another really nice college town and get a 66% discount, you may want to check out Fort Collins 🙂

Yes, despite the recent uptick in prices here locally, we are still a bargain compared to Boulder. Here are median single-family prices for our markets and their relative price to Boulder:

  • Fort Collins = $414,237 (66.8% off)
  • Loveland = $360,150 (71.1% off)
  • Greeley = $290,000 (76.7% off)
  • Windsor = $306,450 (75.4% off)

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 11, 2018 at 5:34 pm
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April Showers

The April results are in for Larimer and Weld County…

Larimer County had 547 residential sales for the month, 11% fewer than a year ago. Weld County was up 13% compared to last year with 493 sales.

Why is Larimer down and Weld up? It’s mostly driven by affordability – there tend to be more homes to choose from under $350,000 in Weld County.

How about prices? Average prices went up 10% in Larimer County and 9% in Weld County compared to April 2017.

Larimer County’s average price is $419,918 and Weld’s is $359,402.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

Posted on May 7, 2018 at 8:20 pm
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The Gardner Report

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.
  • Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

Posted on April 30, 2018 at 8:51 pm
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