All Time High

Home Builder’s confidence in Baby Boomer buyers is at an all time high.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) surveys their members each quarter to discover what they expect of future sales.

The builders base a large part of their answer on how many people are visiting their sales centers and model homes versus the same time last year.

The results in their most recent survey show that builders have never been more confident about buyers who are 55 and older.

The confidence index for this age group is actually double of what it was in 2012.  The NAHB sites low interest rates and strong job growth as the reasons for the high confidence.

 

Posted on December 19, 2019 at 10:52 pm
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Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Real Estate Forecast

It’s that time of year when Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dusts off his crystal ball and peers into the future to give us his predictions for the 2020 economy and housing market.

Posted on December 18, 2019 at 4:46 pm
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County by County

Here are some interesting takeaways…

 

If you want to find the least expensive new home on the Front Range, the places to look are Weld County and El Paso County.

·         Weld County Average New Home Price  = $411,269

·         El Paso County Average New Home Price = $427,361

The most expensive place for a new home is in Boulder County (no surprise) at $698,208.

Jefferson County has the largest difference between the average price of a new home and the average price of a resale home:  $664,600 vs. $510,003.

Here’s the County by County breakdown of the average price of a new single-family home:

·         Boulder = $698,208

·         Jefferson = $664,600

·         Douglas = $624,315

·         Broomfield = $612,779

·         Denver = $581,480

·         Arapahoe = $545,943

·         Larimer = $507,105

·         Adams = $480,464

·         El Paso = $427,361

·         Weld = $411,269

Posted on December 6, 2019 at 8:03 pm
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Time for New

 

Here is a fact…

If you have ever thought about owning a new home, the last two months of the year are usually the best time to make that happen.

Here’s why…

Many builders have year-end goals and sales quotas to hit.  If they have a “standing inventory” of homes that are completed but not sold, they are typically motivated to sell these homes by the end of the year.

This dynamic can be especially true for publicly-traded builders who are even more motivated to hit year-end sales numbers.

Up and down the Front Range there are beautiful new homes in fantastic neighborhoods.  The builders of these homes may be happy to make concessions and provide incentives as long as you close by year-end.

We just recently helped a buyer with a very compelling incentive package from a builder which included a lower price, additional landscaping and window coverings.

If you would like more details about these kinds of opportunities, reach out and I can help.

 

Posted on November 1, 2019 at 5:03 pm
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Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
  • Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
  • I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
  • Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
  • Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on October 28, 2019 at 7:20 pm
Rondi duPont | Category: Colorado Housing, Gardner Report, Market News | Tagged , ,

Most Active

 

What is the most active price range in Northern Colorado?  Take a guess…

  • $300,000 to $400,000
  • $400,000 to $500,000
  • $500,000 to $750,000
  • $750,000 and above

By far, the most active price range is $300,000 to $400,000 with 60% more closed transactions than the $400,000 to $500,000 range and 400% more than homes priced $750,000 and above.

However, this lower price range does not have the most inventory.  The price range with the greatest selection of homes is $500,000 to $750,000.

Posted on October 25, 2019 at 6:11 pm
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Big Bounce

Seventy-five major metro markets have seen home prices bounce back to above their pre-recession peaks.

Metro Denver has seen the biggest bounce with home values 91% above its previous high in 2007 , according to the Home Price Recovery Index from HSH.com.

“Aside from routinely strong home price appreciation, it’s important to know that the Denver metro’s housing ‘bust’ in 2008 was relatively short and shallow,” said Keith Gumbinger, the report’s author.

The peak-to-trough for home values was only three years long and the total decline in value was just under 8 percent in Metro Denver, he said.

By contrast, a half-dozen large metros have seen home prices more than double from their lows and still not reach the old highs. On that list are Las Vegas, Sacramento, Calif, and Cape Coral, Fla.

Posted on September 27, 2019 at 10:57 am
Fort Collins | Posted in BlogFun Facts | Tagged 
Posted on October 21, 2019 at 8:05 pm
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Net Worth

Check out these numbers from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances:

  • Median Net Worth in the U.S. = $97,300
  • Median Net Worth of a Renter = $5,200
  • Median Net Worth of a Homeowner = $231,400
Posted on October 14, 2019 at 9:04 pm
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Reduced

Some fascinating research from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors…

37% of properties that sold last month along the Front Range had a price reduction at some point during the listing period.

Property owners who have to reduce their price take an average of 58 days to receive an offer.

Those who don’t have to reduce their price only take 13 days.

This stat obviously speaks to the importance of pricing your property right on day one.

Posted on October 7, 2019 at 7:39 pm
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What We Notice

Here are some observations we have about the market right now:

  • Inventory is up, price reductions are up, the length of time to sell a home is up
  • Seller concessions are more prevalent
  • Sellers are more willing to accept contingent offers (especially in higher price ranges)
  • If a home doesn’t sell within a week, it often becomes stigmatized by the market and potential buyers assume there must be something wrong with it
  • Homes that likely would have sold within hours a year ago, are now sitting on the market
  • Condition is super-important as buyers become even more picky
  • Pricing a property correctly on day one is paramount
  • Sellers who over-price their property are finding themselves chasing the market

 

Posted on August 2, 2019 at 11:09 am
Fort Collins | Posted in BlogFun Facts | Tagged 
Posted on September 25, 2019 at 7:38 pm
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