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Net Worth Surge
Net worth surged for American families during the pandemic era, largely because of increased home values based on the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances.
Net worth is a measure of household assets after accounting for liabilities. After accounting for inflation, median net worth jumped to $192,900, a 37% increase from 2019-22, the Fed found.
That percentage growth was the largest since the Fed started its modern survey in 1989. It was also more than double the next-largest increase on record. Between 2004 and 2007 real median net worth rose 18%.
Increasing Reductions
More and more sellers are having to reduce their listing price.
Nationally, 37% of all home sellers have recently had a listing price reduction. This is according to a recent report from Altos Research.
This is up from 30% in May and is now at the second-highest level since 2018. The highest it has been in the last five years is November 2022 when it stood at 41%.
A “normal” range is between 25% and 30%. Today’s number is a result of softening demand based on higher interest rates.
Proper pricing is always important for a seller and is especially so now as we enter a typically slower time of the year with added challenges related to interest rates.
$44 Trillion
Have you ever wondered how much all of the residential real estate in the U.S. is worth?
It’s $44.5 trillion.
That’s 44 with 12 zeroes after it.
This data comes from the Federal Reserve’s Quarterly “Z.1” report.
The total valuation increased by $2.4 Trillion over the last quarter and is essentially flat compared to one year ago.
In total, liabilities on residential properties (mortgages, equity loans, etc.) is $12.9 trillion.
So, collectively, residential property owners in the U.S. have a 71% equity share and owe 29% of the value.
PROTESTING!
The number of protests filed with Colorado’s 64 county assessors increased 300% in 2023 compared to the average number of protests from the previous three assessment cycles.
Property owners filed at least 308,298 protests with Colorado’s 64 county assessors this year, which compares to an average of 103,000 annual protests in the last three assessment cycles in 2021, 2019 and 2017.
The increase was due to the amount values increased from this valuation period versus the last one. This was because the time frame considered for comparable sales, July 1 2020 to June 30 2022, was arguably the most robust real estate market in our lifetime.
A New Change
There is a new type of change to be prepared for.
One interesting way to track the market is to measure the year-over-year difference in inventory.
Quite simply, this looks at how many homes are available today versus the same time one year ago.
For the past several months in a row, the difference as measured by percentage change, has been significant.
That is because inventory levels between May of 2020 and May of 2022 were rock-bottom low.
For example, inventory in March of this year was up over 120% compared to March 2022.
When measured against historical numbers, inventory in the first half of this year is incredibly low. But, when measured against the first half of 2022, inventory is significantly higher.
Well, that is about to change because inventory increased in June and July of 2022.
So, now when we look at inventory levels versus a year ago, the percentage change will be more modest.
For example, Northern Colorado inventory today is up only 8% compared to one year ago.
Not What Many Thought
Despite higher interest rates, prices did not decrease like many people thought. They certainly have not crashed like many thought.
Average prices along the Front Range have seen only a slight decrease versus last year.
The average price in May this year has decreased versus May of last year by:
2.5% in Larimer County
3.2% in Weld County
2.8% in Metro Denver
When we take a closer look, what is apparent is that average prices have decreased based on the type of properties that are selling versus last year.
Specifically, there were more $1,000,000 – plus homes selling a year ago versus today. Those higher-end transactions in 2022 increased the average price.
In May of 2023, $1,000,000- plus transactions decreased versus May of 2022 by:
33% in Larimer County
29% in Weld County
35% in Metro Denver
So, we don’t see that prices have gone down. We see that average price has slightly decreased because they aren’t as many luxury sales pulling up the average.
In Demand
For evidence that the Front Range is a desirable place to live and own real estate, look no further than the average price of our real estate.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the average price of a home in the United States is $486,000.
Compare that to the average price in our major markets:
- Larimer County = $662,000
- Weld County = $535,000
- Metro Denver = $670,000
This means prices along the Front Range are 10% to 38% higher than the National Average.
While interesting, this is not surprising given our employment growth, economic health, and quality of life in our markets versus the Nation as a whole.
Dropping Inventory
Breaking News – months of inventory has dropped significantly signifying an uptick in real estate activity along the Front Range.‘Months of inventory’ is an important statistic and something we commonly talk about in this blog. It simply measures how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.As a reminder, a market is ‘balanced’ when there is four to six months of inventory on the market.During the fast-paced market of June 2020 to June 2022, this statistic dropped to less than one month.During the market cooling of last Winter, it increased to over two months.Now, it is back to nearly one month of supply signaling a clear seller’s market.Of course, all markets are hyper-local and this number can vary based on specific price point and specific location.However, looking at ‘months of inventory’ from a big picture view, offers a good understanding of overall market conditions.Here is what months of inventory is for each Front Range market:Larimer County = 1.3 MonthsWeld County = 1.2 Months Metro Denver = 1.1 Months
No Middle Class
“The middle class is going away” is an often-used adage when talking about society. It is also a good way to describe today’s real estate market. When it comes to properties for sale, the middle class has gone away.There is a class of listings which are priced to the market, in great condition, with world-class marketing.Then, there are those that are overpriced, not in good condition, with sub-par marketing.Properties in the first class are selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and sometimes even over list price.Properties in the second class are sitting on the market.Sellers, who want a successful result, must be in the first class.Buyers, who want a bargain or who want to ‘wheel and deal,’ can typically only find those opportunities in the second class.Here’s the thing. Rising interest rates have caused buyers to be more picky. Yet, low inventory has caused competition for the best properties.Both sellers and buyers need to know there is no middle class when it comes to listings.
Equity Rich!
Homeowners in Northern Colorado have a bunch of equity in their homes.This fact was reported by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at our annual Real Estate Market Forecast event.The term ‘equity rich’ is defined as someone who has at least 50% equity in their home.For example, if someone owns a home worth $500,000 and their mortgage balance is less than $250,000, they are ‘equity rich.’A whopping 57% of Larimer County homeowners and 46% of Weld County homeowners are equity rich.To put that in perspective, in 2015 there were roughly 20% of Northern Colorado homeowners who had this much equity in their homes.This level of equity is one of many reasons Northern Colorado is protected from any sort of severe market downturn resulting from an excessive amount of distressed properties hitting the market.
