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The Cost of Waiting
It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off. We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.
However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.
As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait. They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’
The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.
1. Interest rates will continue to rise
2. Prices will continue to rise
Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.
Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years. Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.
So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today. If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.
And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher. That’s an 11% increase!
In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”
Average Home Prices in Northern Colorado
Yesterday the Coloradoan ran a very good article about the increase of average home prices in Larimer County, which they stated has now reached $405,000.
We thought this article may make you curious to know what the average prices are in each specific city in Northern Colorado:
- Fort Collins = $453,051
- Loveland = $402,132
- Windsor = $463,769
- Greeley = $310,785
- Timnath = $604,481
- Wellington = $338,999
- Boulder = $1,105,634
source = IRES
Contact me today to find out what your home would be valued at in today’s market!
66% Off
This just in…
For the month of April, the average price of a home in the city of Boulder was $1,247,000. This is according to the latest from our IRES MLS system. 
If you want to own a home about an hour down the road in another really nice college town and get a 66% discount, you may want to check out Fort Collins 🙂
Yes, despite the recent uptick in prices here locally, we are still a bargain compared to Boulder. Here are median single-family prices for our markets and their relative price to Boulder:
- Fort Collins = $414,237 (66.8% off)
- Loveland = $360,150 (71.1% off)
- Greeley = $290,000 (76.7% off)
- Windsor = $306,450 (75.4% off)
Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email us at rdupont@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.
The Gardner Report
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.
In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.
HOME SALES ACTIVITY
- In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
- With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
- Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
- The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.
HOME PRICES
Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.- Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.
- Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
- The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
- Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
- During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
- Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.
Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Foreclosed
Remember when the hot topics in real estate were short sales and foreclosures? Not today!
As an additional indicator of the health of our market, foreclosure activity is significantly lower than it was 7 to 8 years ago.
Today in Colorado only 1 in 3920 homes is in foreclosure. This is much lower than the current national number of 1 in every 2043 homes.
How about Northern Colorado? Both Larimer and Weld Counties are performing better than the National Average.
In Larimer County the number is 1 in 6695 and Weld County is 1 in 2849.
Bubbly?
Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.
There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.
Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…
One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory. Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes. The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.
Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.
According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.
That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.
It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.
So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.
In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to me to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information. Just email me at rdupont@windermere.com
Short vs Long
There are short-term questions about real estate and there are long term questions about real estate.
Clients often have short-term questions like…
How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?
We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.
When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.
For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:
- Larimer County = 5.36%
- Weld County = 4.25%
- Metro Denver = 5.56%
So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.
To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.
Inventory is UP!
For the past few years the hot topic in Northern Colorado real estate is inventory, or more specifically, lack of inventory.
Memory Lane
Today we will take a fun trip down memory lane.
Did you know that it was the fall of 1981 when mortgage interest rates hit their all time peak? Yes it was this time 36 years ago when 30-year mortgage rates hit 18.39%
Yikes!
It’s important to note that in those days, not many home buyers were opting for a 30-fixed loan because rates were so high. There were a lot of people looking at adjustable rate products as a way to reduce the monthly payment.
Just for fun, let’s look at what a monthly payment would look like if those same rates from 1981 existed today.
If rates were 18.39% today, a $350,000 home with a 20% down payment would have a monthly principal and interest payment of…
$4,309! Yikes!
Thank goodness rates aren’t that high today. They are actually about 15% lower!
Today’s 30-year rate sits at 3.83% (which by the way is roughly half of the long term average).
A monthly principal and interest payment on a $350,000 home with 20% down is…
$1,309. Three thousand dollars lower than it would be using 1981 ‘s rates.
For a detailed look at what’s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Scoop.”
Greeley’s Major Milestone
The Greeley market is about to hit a major milestone.
Today the average price sits at $289,870.
