You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
If you missed our Annual Forecast Review last month, click the link below to get a recap of the event:
One of the most common questions we hear from clients is “Where do you think interest rates are going?”
Virtually all of the experts we follow put rates above 5% going into next year and some see rates approaching 5.5% by the middle of 2019. What’s certain is that there are economic forces at work that are pushing rates higher.
So, how about a little history lesson? How do today’s 30- year mortgage rates compare to this same date in history going all the way back to 1990?
• Today = 4.85%
• 2017 = 3.94%
• 2015 = 3.82%
• 2010 = 4.27%
• 2005 = 5.98%
• 2000 = 7.84%
• 1995 = 7.75%
• 1990 = 10.22%
While today’s rates feel high only because they are higher than 2017, they are quite a bit lower than at many times in history.
We thought this article may make you curious to know what the average prices are in each specific city in Northern Colorado:
source = IRES
Contact me today to find out what your home would be valued at in today’s market!
Last night was our annual Market Forecast event. Thank you to the 400 clients and friends who joined us at the Marriott.
Last year’s average price increases looked like this:
Low inventory will persist in many parts of the market during 2018. But, like we mentioned last night, there are many parts of the market where the market is in balance or even over-supplied with homes. All markets are local!
Our Cheif Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared several of his insights including his prediction for interest rates one year from now which is 4.4% (about 0.5% higher than today).
For buyers thinking about waiting until the market cools off, there is a tangible cost to that wait. If prices and interest rates go up as we predict, a one-year wait would equal over $200 per month for a $400,000 home.
First things first, this is your last call to register for our Annual Forecast. If you want clarity on what is happening in the market, this is the event to attend. We will be live at 5:30 Thursday the 18th at the Marriott. RSVP to www.windermereforecast.com
Now, what’s going up? According to our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner, interest rates. His prediction for 2018 is that rates will rise roughly 0.5% up to 4.4%.
That means a buyer’s purchasing power will go down by 5%. Even if prices didn’t increase at all, a buyer’s monthly payment would go up 5% because of a measly 1/2% increase in interest rate.
By Matthew’s own admission, rates have baffled forecasters for the last few years. Unusual forces have kept them artificially low for a sustained period of time. But even a small rate increase like Matthew predicts will have a big effect on potential buyers.
To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com
Today we will take a fun trip down memory lane.
Did you know that it was the fall of 1981 when mortgage interest rates hit their all time peak? Yes it was this time 36 years ago when 30-year mortgage rates hit 18.39%
It’s important to note that in those days, not many home buyers were opting for a 30-fixed loan because rates were so high. There were a lot of people looking at adjustable rate products as a way to reduce the monthly payment.
Just for fun, let’s look at what a monthly payment would look like if those same rates from 1981 existed today.
If rates were 18.39% today, a $350,000 home with a 20% down payment would have a monthly principal and interest payment of…
Thank goodness rates aren’t that high today. They are actually about 15% lower!
Today’s 30-year rate sits at 3.83% (which by the way is roughly half of the long term average).
A monthly principal and interest payment on a $350,000 home with 20% down is…
$1,309. Three thousand dollars lower than it would be using 1981 ‘s rates.
For a detailed look at what’s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Scoop.”
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
The housing market is remarkably tight across the U.S., and you may be wondering if you should wait for home prices to slow before making your move. Windermere's Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shares why waiting could end up costing you more money in the long run.
Posted by Windermere Real Estate on Friday, August 18, 2017
Same goes in our Northern Colorado market. We see a major difference between certain price ranges and certain locations right here in our little neck of the woods.
Just like two kids from the same parents are different, two price ranges in the same place are very different.
To make this point, let’s look at months of inventory. This statistic simply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.
Across all price ranges, months of inventory in Larimer County = 2.0. Meaning it would take two months to sell all the homes currently for sale. But this is misleading, because months of inventory…
So, the $1,000,000 seller who hears that the market is “hot” is actually faced with a year’s inventory currently on the market!
This is a very high-level look at the differences in our market. I am happy to give you a detailed look at your exact neighborhood in your exact price range. Let us know if we can help!
You can download the 4-page PDF here: Gardner Report PDF Download
Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?
Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?
Here’s the deal…
The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.
What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.
What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.
In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.
For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June. Whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.
A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.
We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.
The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.
It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org
Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.