Gardner Report – Market Analysis

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 62,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, an increase of 2.4% over this time last year. All of the metropolitan markets included in this report saw annual employment growth, with substantial growth in Boulder (4.7%) and Fort Collins (+4.1%), and more modest growth in Grand Junction (0.3%).

In May, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.3%, matching the prior month and down 3.4% from a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Fort Collins at just 2.0%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, though it was still a relatively low 3.3%. It is reasonable to expect these markets will see above-average wage growth given the tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

• There were 17,581 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, a solid annual increase of 3.9% over the first quarter of 2016.
• Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 9.4% increase. There was also an impressive increase in Douglas County (+6.3%).  More modest sales growth was seen in Denver and Weld Counties.
• Even with the rise in sales, listing activity is still running at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the second quarter 7.6% below a year ago.
• Sales growth continues to trend higher, but inventory levels remain well below where they need to be to satisfy demand.

HOME PRICES

• Due to solid demand, home prices continue to rise with average prices up by 8.5% year-over-year to an average across the region of $438,980.
• Boulder County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positive.
• Appreciation was strongest in Denver and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.4% and 10.6% respectively.
• Economic growth is driving job growth, which is driving housing demand. Given the relative shortage of homes for sale, expect to see home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates at least through the rest of the year.

DAYS ON MARKET

• The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the second quarter of 2016.
• Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County stood out as it took an average of only 11 days to sell a home.
• During the second quarter, it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home. This is down by a substantial 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
• The takeaway here is that demand remains robust as evidenced by the remarkably short amount of time that it is taking to sell a home.

CONCLUSIONS