Contemporary Elegance Meets Comfort
Leap Year
The statistic that is leaping so far in 2024 is inventory.
Northern Colorado is seeing a big uptick in number of homes for sale.
However, it is not an alarming amount and is still a ‘Seller’s Market’ by definition.
Larimer County inventory is up 39% and Weld County is up 48%.
Months of inventory is up to 2.3 in Larimer County from 1.7 months a year ago.
Weld County is also at 2.3 months today and was only 1.2 months a year ago.
With higher inventory comes more selection for buyers and more importance for sellers to price right.
Normal Timing
After three years of abnormally low Days on Market, properties today are settling into a more normal and more reasonable length of time on the market.
Days on Market today stands at:
53 Days in Larimer County
66 Days in Weld County
Back in 2021, for example, Days on Market was roughly half of today’s number.
Buyers today are discerning, and proper pricing is more important than ever in order to meet a Seller’s timing goals.
Inventory Jump
The most significant trend we notice 45 days into the new year is the jump in inventory.
There are many more properties for sale along the Front Range compared to one year ago.
- Larimer County is up 40%
- Weld County is up 39%
- Metro Denver is up 35%
This comes as welcome news for buyers as we near the Spring buying season.
Forecast Takeaways
Here are some of the big takeaways from our annual Market Forecast with Economist Matthew Gardner:
- Interest rates will continue to trend down during the year and reach 6.08% by the end of 2024.
- Home prices will have another year of modest gains increasing 2.0% to 2.5% in Northern Colorado
- 53% of homeowners in Larimer County and 38% of homeowners in Weld County are “Equity Rich” meaning that they have at least 50% equity in their homes.
- Inventory levels will increase in 2024 but will remain below normal which protects prices from any sort of major decline
To receive a copy of the full slide deck from the Forecast, feel free to reach out to us!
More Normal Range
The length of time that it takes for a property to sell is settling into a more normal range.
“Days on Market” is an insightful statistic that counts how long it takes for a property to go from live on the market to sold.
Today measurement stands at 72 days in Larimer County and 74 days in Weld County.
From January 2021 to November 2022, Days on Market never went above 60. This time period was defined by incredibly high demand and drastically low supply.
The time frame of January 2018 to December 2020, which was more ‘normal,’ had Days on Market between 60 and 90 days.
Out of the Gates
How is the year starting? All of us in the real estate industry are especially curious to see how 2024 is starting off after the first slow real estate year in a long time.
Rates have settled down and are trending down.
Prices have shown resilience and continue to go up.
But, how about transactions? Are they picking up after a year that saw an 18% decline in the number of closed residential properties?
It turns out the year is starting off strong but not unusually strong.
Pending transactions are up in Larimer County 7% year over year and up 3% in Weld County.
So, we are already seeing signs that 2024 will be a year of growth compared to last year.
Price Plummet
For anyone waiting for home prices to drop before making a buying decision, there is good news.
The recent plummet in mortgage rates means that home prices, effectively, just took a big dip.
Rates have gone down by 1% in the last 45 days which means that a prospective home buyer’s payment is 10% less today than what it would have been at the end of October.
For example, the Principal and Interest payment for a $500,000 loan is $341 less today than what it was 45 days ago.
So, from a buyer’s perspective, prices have gone down by 10% in a very short time.
Inventory in Perspective
A significant dynamic in the Front Range market is the relatively low inventory. This is the main reason why prices are stable despite higher rates.
Here is some perspective on the inventory of homes for sale to help give some context.
Today’s inventory is:
- Half of the long-term average going back 30 years
- ¼ of the all-time high in 2006
- 3 times the all-time low of 2021
Most Surprising News
The most surprising piece of news for our friends and clients is that prices are essentially flat compared to last year. People find that surprising given what interest rates have done over the last 18 months. They wonder, how could prices not fall significantly after interest rates jumped considerably?
The answer is the fundamental economic lesson of supply and demand.
There is enough demand in the market for the current supply to keep prices stable even in an environment of higher rates.
Now that rates are (finally) trending down, it gives us even more confidence about the continued growth of real estate prices along the Front Range.
Here is a look at how home prices compare to one year ago:
Larimer County = Down 0.8%
Weld County = Up 3.4%
Metro Denver = Up 0.8%