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Our Crystal Ball
Last week Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner joined us for our annual Market Forecast events in Colorado. We were pleased to
host over 500 customers at two events in Denver and Fort Collins.
Here are some of the big takeaways that we shared:
Signs of Slowing
It's not just temperatures cooling off as we transition from summer to fall, there are signs that the market is cooling as well.
The numbers are in and both Loveland and Fort Collins had their slowest August in several years.
Loveland had 127 single family home sales last month. This is 16% lower than August 2015 and the slowest August for Loveland since 2012.
Fort Collins had their slowest August since 2011 with 206 single family sales. This is 13% lower than last year.
This is good news for buyers who may have been reluctant to enter the multiple-offer frenzy that occurred this past spring. It looks like we are moving toward a more "normal" market.
Colorado’s Home Appreciation
With the Olympics stoking the spirit of competition, we took at look at how Colorado stacks up against the other states when it comes to real estate prices.
Our impartial judge for the competition is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who tracks close to 300 real estate markets all over the country.
For this competition we are looking at home price appreciation over the last five years. Simply, how much have prices gone up for each state?
And the winner is… (not Colorado)
The winner is Nevada with a 68% increase in the last five years.
Here's the top 5:
1. Nevada 68%
2. Arizona 57%
3. California 54%
4. Florida 53%
5. Colorado 48%
Here's the deal about this list- other than Colorado, these are all the states that were hit hardest by the real estate downturn in 2008 & 2009. These states are still clawing their way out of the hole that was created. While Colorado continues to show a more steady pattern without the wild swings seen in other places.
The Estes Park Mountain Market
With fall right around the corner many of us will be trekking up to Estes Park to see the Aspen leaves turning.
As you drive through Estes you may wonder "how's the mountain market?"
Here are some fun facts about real estate in Estes Park.
- The average price today is $394,046 – not that different than Fort Collins.
- Average prices have gone up $60,000 in the last three years.
- Their market has about 300 sales per year- roughly a tenth of the amount in Fort Collins.
- If you were looking for a home in Estes between $300,000 and $500,000, you would have 15 to choose from.
Now you know about the Mountain Market!
Door Opens for Buyers
After a very active (to say the least) spring and summer, the door has now opened for buyers in our market.
Buyers who were frustrated during the first half of the year with low inventory and bidding wars now realize a better environment. It's time to step off the sidelines and take a fresh look at what the market has to offer.
The first piece of good news is that rates have dropped to near all-time lows. Rates today are 0.6% lower than they were on January 1st. What this means on a $400,000 home with a conventional loan is a monthly savings of $110!
The second piece of good news is that inventory levels are coming up. There are more homes on the market to pick from and lower demand because of seasonal slowing. Months of inventory in Larimer County markets have bounced up 20% to 33%.
Versus Boulder
When it comes to real estate, many say that Fort Collins is the "next Boulder."
Let's look at the 2016 numbers* and do a little side-by-side of Fort Collins versus Boulder.
The Fort Collins average price is less than half of Boulder's ($355,000 versus $890,000)
Fort Collins has 4 times as many transactions (1,108 versus 251)
Fort Collins has 4 times as many homes for sale (715 versus 175)
Homes in Boulder sell 25% faster (62 days versus 82 days)
*These numbers come from IRES and are through May 2016
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