Northern Colorado Real Estate • March 2, 2018

Charming Ranch With Upgrades

by Rondi duPont

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Featuring 3 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms And A Finished Basement!

Charming 3 bed 3 bath updated home located in High Plains Village awaits! The kitchen showcases gorgeous granite counter tops & stainless steel appliances, opening to the dining area & family room making the main level perfect for entertaining! The incredible finished basement boasts a nook perfect for crafts or an office, additional bed/bath & bonus room. Newer furnace, A/C & tank-less water heater recently installed. Situated on a beautifully landscaped lot, close to shops & restaurants.

For more information, please visit: https://rondidupont.com/listing/76077555 or call Rondi duPont at (970) 460-3033.

Foreclosed

by Rondi duPont

Remember when the hot topics in real estate were short sales and foreclosures? Not today!

As an additional indicator of the health of our market, foreclosure activity is significantly lower than it was 7 to 8 years ago.

Today in Colorado only 1 in 3920 homes is in foreclosure. This is much lower than the current national number of 1 in every 2043 homes.

How about Northern Colorado? Both Larimer and Weld Counties are performing better than the National Average.

In Larimer County the number is 1 in 6695 and Weld County is 1 in 2849.

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Gardner Report • February 1, 2018

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Rondi duPont

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • Northern Colorado Real Estate • January 26, 2018

Bubbly?

by Rondi duPont

Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.

There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.

Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…

One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory. Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes. The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.

Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.
According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.

That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.

It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.

So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.

In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to me to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information. Just email me at rdupont@windermere.com

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • Northern Colorado Real Estate • January 19, 2018

Our Forecast

by Rondi duPont

Last night was our annual Market Forecast event. Thank you to the 400 clients and friends who joined us at the Marriott.

Here are our predictions for where prices are going in 2018:

Fort Collins 8%
Loveland 7%
Greeley 9%

Last year’s average price increases looked like this:

Fort Collins 7%
Loveland 8%
Greeley 11%

Low inventory will persist in many parts of the market during 2018. But, like we mentioned last night, there are many parts of the market where the market is in balance or even over-supplied with homes. All markets are local!

Our Cheif Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared several of his insights including his prediction for interest rates one year from now which is 4.4% (about 0.5% higher than today).

For buyers thinking about waiting until the market cools off, there is a tangible cost to that wait. If prices and interest rates go up as we predict, a one-year wait would equal over $200 per month for a $400,000 home.

In case you missed the event, you can read more about it here in the Loveland Reporter-Herald. They did a great recap of our presentation. CLICK HERE

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • Northern Colorado Real Estate • January 12, 2018

What’s Up??

by Rondi duPont

First things first, this is your last call to register for our Annual Forecast. If you want clarity on what is happening in the market, this is the event to attend. We will be live at 5:30 Thursday the 18th at the Marriott. RSVP to www.windermereforecast.com

Now, what’s going up? According to our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner, interest rates. His prediction for 2018 is that rates will rise roughly 0.5% up to 4.4%.

That means a buyer’s purchasing power will go down by 5%. Even if prices didn’t increase at all, a buyer’s monthly payment would go up 5% because of a measly 1/2% increase in interest rate.

By Matthew’s own admission, rates have baffled forecasters for the last few years. Unusual forces have kept them artificially low for a sustained period of time. But even a small rate increase like Matthew predicts will have a big effect on potential buyers.

To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • December 23, 2017

What It Means

by Rondi duPont

The new tax bill is expected to be signed by the end of the year. Here is a summary of what it means for your real estate…

(By the way, be sure to RSVP for our Market Forecast on January 18th so you can hear our predictions for next year. Click HERE to register)

The new tax bill:

Retains the current law for exclusion of capital gains on a principal residence. You still need to live in a home for 2 of the last 5 years to claim a capital gains exclusion. There was a risk that this would be changed to 5 of the last 8 years, but thankfully it did not.
Reduces the limit of deductible mortgage debt from $1 Million to $750,000.
Retains the ability to deduct mortgage debt on second homes.
Allows for an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for property taxes. When the bill was first introduced, there was no allowance for a property tax deduction.
Retains the current 1031 like-kind exchange rules which is terrific news for investors.

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • Northern Colorado Real Estate • December 8, 2017

Get Real

by Rondi duPont

A story ran this week which highlighted the number of people who have moved out of Colorado.

Let’s get real, there are still a large number of people moving to Colorado.

In fact, 223,000 moved to Colorado from another state last year according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The net migration into our state (after subtracting out people who left) was 30,859 people.

In Northern Colorado the net migration looks like this:

Larimer County = 7,001 people
Weld County = 7,117 people

So what does that mean for housing? Knowing that, on average, 2.5 people live in each household, the number of new housing units required for these new residents looks like this:

Larimer County = 2,800 new housing units
Weld County = 2,847 new housing units

Blog • Fort Collins Real Estate • Fort Collins Realtor • Fun Facts • Northern Colorado Real Estate • November 10, 2017

New Proposed Tax Bill

by Rondi duPont

House Republicans released their proposed tax bill last Thursday. The proposal is a long way from becoming law, but the draft contains three noteworthy items related to housing.

As the law stands now, homeowners can claim as an itemized deduction interest paid on mortgages valued up to $1 million used to acquire or improve a first and/or second home. The plan maintains the current cap for existing homeowners, but cuts it to $500,000 for homes purchased in the future. (The bill would also limit the mortgage interest deduction to one principal home, ending any deductions for vacation homes.)

Another change is to the provision that allows homeowners to exclude from their taxable income up to $250,000 in capital gains ($500,000 for married taxpayers) from a sale of their primary residence. Under the plan, to qualify for this break, homeowners must have owned and lived in the home for at least five of the last eight years. Currently the rule is two of the last five. Taxpayer use of the exclusion would also be limited to one sale every five years, rather than one every two. In addition, under the house bill, you begin to lose the gains exemption if adjusted gross income (in a look-back period) exceeded $500,000 if married or $250,000 if single.

The third change is the proposal to cap the deduction for property tax on a home at $10,000. Currently all state and local taxes are deductible from ordinary income.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

Blog • Fun Facts • Gardner Report • November 5, 2017

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Rondi duPont

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.8%. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, annual employment growth was seen in all areas other than Grand Junction (where employment was stable) with substantial growth seen in Fort Collins (4.6%) and Greeley (3.5%).

In August, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.2%, down from 3.1% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were again seen in Fort Collins at just 1.8%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, at a very respectable 3.0%. It is still reasonable to assume that all the markets contained within this report will see above-average wage growth given the very tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

There were 17,140 home sales during the third quarter of 2017, which was a drop of 3.3% from the same period in 2016.
Sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 4% more than the third quarter of 2016. There were marginal increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
Home sales slowed due to very low levels of available inventory. Listing activity continues to trend at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the third quarter 5.5% below the level seen a year ago.
The takeaway here is that sales growth has stalled due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

With substantial competition for the few available homes, prices continue to rise. Average prices were up 7.5% year-over-year to a regional average of $428,602.
Slower appreciation in home values was again seen in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 12%.
Due to an ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, home prices will continue to appreciate at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the third quarter of 2016.
Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out as it took an average of just two weeks to sell a home there.
During the third quarter, it took an average of 20 days to sell a home. This is up by 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
Demand remains strong, and well-positioned, well-priced homes continue to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

In the third quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the second quarter. Homes are still scarce; however, there is a small slowdown in price growth and a decline in both closed and pending sales. This may suggest the market is either getting weary of all the competition or that would-be buyers are possibly putting off buying until they see more choices in the number of homes for sale.

If you are in the market to buy or sell, let me know! I am happy to help!